UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Leon Edwards (14-4) taking on Kamaru Usman (15-3).

Usman is rated at 1828 — 232 points above Edwards's 1596. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Usman throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Usman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Usman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kamaru Usman over Leon Edwards.** We're leaning Usman here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Justin Gaethje (9-5) taking on Rafael Fiziev (7-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Gaethje.

Gaethje is rated at 1847 — 535 points above Fiziev's 1312. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gaethje throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Fiziev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Gaethje has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rafael Fiziev over Justin Gaethje.** The model is firm on this one: Fiziev at 76%. The market implies 31% for Gaethje, but our model sees only 24%. That 7-point gap favoring Fiziev is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Gunnar Nelson (10-5) taking on Bryan Barberena (9-9).

Nelson is rated at 1310 — 351 points above Barberena's 960. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Nelson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Barberena is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nelson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barberena throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Nelson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gunnar Nelson over Bryan Barberena.** The model is firm on this one: Nelson at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Nelson at 76% implied while our model sees 80% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jennifer Maia (6-5) taking on Casey O'Neill (4-2). O'Neill is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Maia at 1193, O'Neill at 1172. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. O'Neill throws significantly more leather — a 4.7 sig. strike per minute gap. O'Neill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Maia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Casey O'Neill over Jennifer Maia.** The model gives O'Neill a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Marvin Vettori (9-7-1) taking on Roman Dolidze (9-3). Dolidze is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Dolidze is rated at 1546 — 267 points above Vettori's 1280. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dolidze has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Vettori is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Dolidze is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dolidze the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vettori throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Vettori is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Vettori has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marvin Vettori over Roman Dolidze.** The model is firm on this one: Vettori at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Vettori at 80% implied while our model sees 83% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Jack Shore (6-2) taking on Makwan Amirkhani (7-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Shore at 1070 versus Amirkhani at 965. That 105-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shore throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Amirkhani is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Shore has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jack Shore over Makwan Amirkhani.** The model is firm on this one: Shore at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Shore at 83% implied while our model sees 87% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Chris Duncan (5-1) taking on Omar Morales (3-3).

Duncan is rated at 1375 — 549 points above Morales's 826. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Duncan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Duncan's all-rounder game against Morales's striker approach. Duncan is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Morales brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morales throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Morales is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Duncan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Duncan over Omar Morales.** The model gives Duncan a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Yanal Ashmouz (2-1) taking on Sam Patterson (3-1). Patterson is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Patterson is rated at 1343 — 330 points above Ashmouz's 1013. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Patterson has won 3 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Patterson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Patterson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Patterson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sam Patterson over Yanal Ashmouz.** The model gives Patterson a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Muhammad Mokaev (6-0) taking on Jafel Filho (2-2).

Mokaev is rated at 1480 — 288 points above Filho's 1193. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mokaev rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mokaev throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Mokaev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 8.9 more per 15 minutes. Filho has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Muhammad Mokaev over Jafel Filho.** The model is firm on this one: Mokaev at 93%. Notably, the betting market has Mokaev at 87% implied while our model sees 93% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Lerone Murphy (8-0-1) taking on Gabriel Santos (1-2). Murphy will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Murphy is rated at 1654 — 538 points above Santos's 1116. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Murphy rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Murphy throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Murphy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gabriel Santos over Lerone Murphy.** The model gives Santos a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 64% for Murphy, but our model sees only 44%. That 20-point gap favoring Santos is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Christian Leroy Duncan (5-2) taking on Dusko Todorovic (3-6). Duncan will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Duncan is rated at 1424 — 553 points above Todorovic's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Todorovic throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Todorovic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Duncan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan over Dusko Todorovic.** The model gives Duncan a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Jake Hadley (3-3) taking on Malcolm Gordon (2-4).

Hadley is rated at 967 — 218 points above Gordon's 749. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Hadley is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gordon looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gordon the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hadley throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Gordon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Hadley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jake Hadley over Malcolm Gordon.** The model is firm on this one: Hadley at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Hadley at 78% implied while our model sees 85% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Joanne Wood (8-8) taking on Luana Carolina (6-3). Carolina will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Wood carries a modest Elo edge (1101 to 1036), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Carolina has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Wood is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Wood has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Luana Carolina over Joanne Wood.** The model gives Carolina a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 64% for Wood, but our model sees only 44%. That 21-point gap favoring Carolina is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Jai Herbert (3-4-1) taking on Ludovit Klein (7-3-1). Herbert is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Klein is rated at 1364 — 349 points above Herbert's 1014. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Klein throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Klein is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Klein has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ludovit Klein over Jai Herbert.** We're leaning Klein here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 36% for Herbert, but our model sees only 30%. That 6-point gap favoring Klein is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Veronica Hardy (4-5) taking on Juliana Miller (2-2). Miller is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Hardy is rated at 1091 — 181 points above Miller's 910. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Hardy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Juliana Miller over Veronica Hardy.** The model gives Miller a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.