UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
Saturday, February 25, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 6/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
MiddleweightMISS
Brendan Allen won by Submission (R3)
Allen 37%63% Muniz
LEANMarket: 33% (+3.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -121(favors Muniz)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Allen)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.2(favors Muniz)
HeavyweightMISS
Augusto Sakai won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sakai 43%57% Mayes
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -33(favors Mayes)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Sakai)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Mayes)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Tatiana Suarez won by Submission (R2)
Suarez 84%16% Rosa
STRONGMarket: 85% (-0.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +333(favors Suarez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Suarez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.7(favors Suarez)
WelterweightHIT
Mike Malott won by Submission (R1)
Malott 61%39% Lainesse
LEANMarket: 67% (-6.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +201(favors Malott)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.9(favors Malott)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Lainesse)
LightweightHIT
Trevor Peek won by KO/TKO (R1)
Peek 70%30% Gonzalez
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (+1.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +129(favors Peek)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Gonzalez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Gonzalez)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Jasmine Jasudavicius won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jasudavicius 45%55% Fernandes
TOSS-UPMarket: 46% (-1.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -21(favors Fernandes)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Jasudavicius)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Jasudavicius)
LightweightHIT
Jordan Leavitt won by KO/TKO (R1)
Leavitt 59%41% Martinez
LEANMarket: 52% (+6.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +63(favors Leavitt)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Leavitt)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Leavitt)
Catch WeightMISS
Ode Osbourne won by Decision - Split (R3)
Osbourne 32%68% Johnson
CONFIDENTMarket: 41% (-9.5% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -207(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Osbourne)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Osbourne)
LightweightHIT
Joe Solecki won by Submission (R2)
Solecki 89%11% Deaton
STRONGMarket: 86% (+3.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +244(favors Solecki)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Solecki)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Solecki)
LightweightHIT
Nurullo Aliev won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Aliev 54%46% Alves
TOSS-UPMarket: 63% (-9.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -56(favors Alves)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Alves)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Alves)