UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Brendan Allen (13-4) taking on Andre Muniz (6-3). Muniz will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Allen is rated at 1696 — 663 points above Muniz's 1034. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Allen throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Muniz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Muniz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Andre Muniz over Brendan Allen.** The model gives Muniz a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Allen at 33% implied while our model sees 37% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Augusto Sakai (4-4) taking on Don'Tale Mayes (4-6). Mayes is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Sakai is rated at 1122 — 273 points above Mayes's 849. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sakai throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Mayes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Mayes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Don'Tale Mayes over Augusto Sakai.** The model gives Mayes a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Tatiana Suarez (7-1) taking on Montana De La Rosa (5-5-1). Rosa is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Suarez is rated at 1531 — 495 points above Rosa's 1036. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Suarez throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Suarez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Suarez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tatiana Suarez over Montana De La Rosa.** The model is firm on this one: Suarez at 84%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Malott (5-1) taking on Yohan Lainesse (1-2). Lainesse will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Malott is rated at 1410 — 630 points above Lainesse's 780. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Malott throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Lainesse is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Lainesse has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mike Malott over Yohan Lainesse.** The model gives Malott a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 67% for Malott, but our model sees only 61%. That 6-point gap favoring Lainesse is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Trevor Peek (2-2) taking on Erick Gonzalez (0-2). Gonzalez is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Peek at 916 versus Gonzalez at 789. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gonzalez throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gonzalez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Peek has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Trevor Peek over Erick Gonzalez.** We're leaning Peek here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jasmine Jasudavicius (8-2) taking on Gabriella Fernandes (2-2).

Jasudavicius is rated at 1358 — 236 points above Fernandes's 1122. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jasudavicius rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jasudavicius throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Jasudavicius is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Fernandes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gabriella Fernandes over Jasmine Jasudavicius.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Fernandes at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Jordan Leavitt (5-3) taking on Victor Martinez (0-1).

Leavitt is rated at 1198 — 445 points above Martinez's 752. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Leavitt throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Leavitt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Martinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jordan Leavitt over Victor Martinez.** The model gives Leavitt a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Leavitt at 52% implied while our model sees 59% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Catch Weight matchup features Ode Osbourne (5-7) taking on Charles Johnson (7-5). Osbourne will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Johnson is rated at 1097 — 252 points above Osbourne's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Osbourne throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Osbourne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Charles Johnson over Ode Osbourne.** We're leaning Johnson here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 41% for Osbourne, but our model sees only 32%. That 9-point gap favoring Johnson is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Solecki (5-3) taking on Carl Deaton (0-1).

Solecki is rated at 1032 — 173 points above Deaton's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Solecki throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Solecki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Deaton has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joe Solecki over Carl Deaton.** The model is firm on this one: Solecki at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Solecki at 86% implied while our model sees 89% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Nurullo Aliev (2-0) taking on Rafael Alves (1-2). Aliev is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Aliev is rated at 1232 — 275 points above Alves's 958. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Alves is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Aliev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nurullo Aliev over Rafael Alves.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Aliev at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 63% for Aliev, but our model sees only 54%. That 10-point gap favoring Alves is worth watching.