UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac
Saturday, February 4, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 6/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightHIT
Serghei Spivac won by Submission (R1)
Spivac 75%25% Lewis
STRONG
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +18(favors Spivac)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Spivac)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.8(favors Spivac)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Devin Clark won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Clark 33%67% Jung
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: -186(favors Jung)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Jung)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Jung)
HeavyweightHIT
Marcin Tybura won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tybura 53%47% Ivanov
TOSS-UPMarket: 57% (-3.9% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +192(favors Tybura)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Tybura)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Ivanov)
Featherweight
Choi 41%59% Nelson
LEAN
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: +109(favors Choi)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Choi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Nelson)
WelterweightMISS
Adam Fugitt won by KO/TKO (R1)
Fugitt 30%70% Kinoshita
CONFIDENTMarket: 25% (+5.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -72(favors Kinoshita)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.7(favors Fugitt)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Fugitt)
LightweightHIT
Anshul Jubli won by KO/TKO (R2)
Jubli 52%48% Saragih
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Saragih)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Saragih)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Saragih)
FeatherweightMISS
JeongYeong Lee won by Decision - Split (R3)
Lee 45%55% Yizha
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Yizha)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Yizha)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Yizha)
BantamweightHIT
Rinya Nakamura won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nakamura 85%15% Kazama
STRONGMarket: 82% (+3.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Kazama)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Kazama)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Kazama)
FlyweightMISS
HyunSung Park won by Submission (R3)
Park 46%54% Choi
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Choi)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Choi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Choi)
MiddleweightHIT
JunYong Park won by Submission (R1)
Park 71%29% Tiuliulin
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +121(favors Park)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Tiuliulin)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Park)
FlyweightHIT
Tatsuro Taira won by Submission (R1)
Taira 76%24% Aguilar
STRONG
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +160(favors Taira)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Taira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Taira)