UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Serghei Spivac (8-6) taking on Derrick Lewis (20-10).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Spivac at 1355, Lewis at 1366. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Spivac's wrestler game against Lewis's striker approach. Spivac looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lewis brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spivac throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Spivac is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Spivac has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Serghei Spivac over Derrick Lewis. The model is firm on this one: Spivac at 75%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Devin Clark (8-8) taking on Da Woon Jung (4-3-1). Jung is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Jung carries a modest Elo edge (979 to 944), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Clark's striker game against Jung's submission artist approach. Clark brings a versatile approach, while Jung is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jung throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Jung is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Jung has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Da Woon Jung over Devin Clark. We're leaning Jung here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcin Tybura (14-8) taking on Blagoy Ivanov (3-4). Tybura is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Tybura at 1242 versus Ivanov at 1148. That 94-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Tybura's striker game against Ivanov's all-rounder approach. Tybura brings a versatile approach, while Ivanov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tybura throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Ivanov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Tybura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcin Tybura over Blagoy Ivanov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tybura at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 57% for Tybura, but our model sees only 53%. That 4-point gap favoring Ivanov is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Dooho Choi (4-3-1) taking on Kyle Nelson (4-5-1).

Choi carries a modest Elo edge (1314 to 1271), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Choi brings a versatile approach, while Nelson is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Nelson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Choi throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Choi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyle Nelson over Dooho Choi. The model gives Nelson a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Adam Fugitt (2-3) taking on Yusaku Kinoshita (0-1). Fugitt will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Fugitt carries a modest Elo edge (811 to 772), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fugitt throws significantly more leather — a 5.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Fugitt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Kinoshita has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yusaku Kinoshita over Adam Fugitt. We're leaning Kinoshita here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Fugitt at 25% implied while our model sees 30% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Anshul Jubli (1-1) taking on Jeka Saragih (1-2). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Jubli.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Jubli at 807, Saragih at 797. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saragih throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Saragih is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Saragih has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anshul Jubli over Jeka Saragih. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jubli at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features JeongYeong Lee (2-1) taking on Yizha (1-2). Lee is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Lee at 937, Yizha at 928. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yizha throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Yizha is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Yizha has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yizha over JeongYeong Lee. The model gives Yizha a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rinya Nakamura (3-1) taking on Toshiomi Kazama (1-2).

Nakamura is rated at 1183 — 347 points above Kazama's 837. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kazama throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kazama is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kazama has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rinya Nakamura over Toshiomi Kazama. The model is firm on this one: Nakamura at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Nakamura at 82% implied while our model sees 85% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features HyunSung Park (3-1) taking on SeungGuk Choi (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Park at 1010 versus Choi at 890. That 121-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Choi throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Choi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Choi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: SeungGuk Choi over HyunSung Park. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Choi at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features JunYong Park (9-3) taking on Denis Tiuliulin (1-4). Tiuliulin is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Park is rated at 1235 — 479 points above Tiuliulin's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Park's wrestler game against Tiuliulin's striker approach. Park looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Tiuliulin brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tiuliulin throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Park is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Park has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: JunYong Park over Denis Tiuliulin. We're leaning Park here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Tatsuro Taira (7-1) taking on Jesus Aguilar (3-2). Taira is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Taira is rated at 1620 — 533 points above Aguilar's 1087. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Taira throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Taira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Aguilar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tatsuro Taira over Jesus Aguilar. The model is firm on this one: Taira at 76%.