UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland
Saturday, December 17, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·13 fights
Model: 11/13(85%)
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Main Card
MiddleweightHIT
Jared Cannonier won by Decision - Split (R5)
Cannonier 51%49% Strickland
Over/UnderOver 67%
Under 33%Over 67%
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (-1.1% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +263(favors Cannonier)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.3(favors Strickland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Strickland)
LightweightHIT
Arman Tsarukyan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tsarukyan 67%33% Ismagulov
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+2.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +220(favors Tsarukyan)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Tsarukyan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Tsarukyan)
FlyweightHIT
Amir Albazi won by KO/TKO (R3)
Albazi 82%18% Costa
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 80% (+1.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +299(favors Albazi)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Albazi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.1(favors Albazi)
FeatherweightHIT
Alex Caceres won by KO/TKO (R1)
Caceres 57%43% Erosa
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEANMarket: 38% (+18.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -59(favors Erosa)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.3(favors Erosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Erosa)
LightweightHIT
Drew Dober won by KO/TKO (R2)
Dober 54%46% Green
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
TOSS-UPMarket: 61% (-6.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +100(favors Dober)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.5(favors Green)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Green)
MiddleweightHIT
Michal Oleksiejczuk won by KO/TKO (R1)
Oleksiejczuk 69%31% Brundage
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (-1.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +21(favors Oleksiejczuk)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Oleksiejczuk)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Brundage)
Prelims
Women's StrawweightHIT
Cory McKenna won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
McKenna 54%46% Vlismas
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UPMarket: 37% (+16.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -6(favors Vlismas)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Vlismas)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors McKenna)
WelterweightMISS
Matthew Semelsberger won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Semelsberger 20%80% Matthews
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
STRONGMarket: 28% (-8.0% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -187(favors Matthews)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Semelsberger)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Matthews)
BantamweightMISS
Said Nurmagomedov won by Submission (R2)
Nurmagomedov 38%62% Kakhramonov
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
LEANMarket: 49% (-11.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +80(favors Nurmagomedov)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Nurmagomedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.6(favors Kakhramonov)
LightweightHIT
Rafa Garcia won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Garcia 56%44% Maheshate
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEANMarket: 57% (-1.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -209(favors Maheshate)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Maheshate)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.9(favors Garcia)
WelterweightHIT
Rinat Fakhretdinov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Fakhretdinov 57%43% Battle
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEANMarket: 58% (-1.5% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -312(favors Battle)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.2(favors Battle)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.7(favors Fakhretdinov)
FlyweightHIT
Manel Kape won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kape 60%40% Dvorak
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEANMarket: 67% (-7.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +101(favors Kape)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Kape)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Kape)
BantamweightHIT
Sergey Morozov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Morozov 71%29% Newson
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-2.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +206(favors Morozov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Morozov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Morozov)