UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Jared Cannonier (11-8) taking on Sean Strickland (16-7).

Strickland is rated at 1813 — 387 points above Cannonier's 1426. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Cannonier's striker game against Strickland's all-rounder approach. Cannonier brings a versatile approach, while Strickland is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Strickland throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Strickland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Strickland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jared Cannonier over Sean Strickland.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cannonier at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Arman Tsarukyan (9-2) taking on Damir Ismagulov (5-1). Ismagulov is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Tsarukyan is rated at 1836 — 634 points above Ismagulov's 1202. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Tsarukyan rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tsarukyan throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Tsarukyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Ismagulov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Arman Tsarukyan over Damir Ismagulov.** We're leaning Tsarukyan here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Amir Albazi (5-1) taking on Alessandro Costa (2-2).

Albazi is rated at 1267 — 333 points above Costa's 934. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Albazi throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Albazi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Costa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Amir Albazi over Alessandro Costa.** The model is firm on this one: Albazi at 82%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Alex Caceres (16-12) taking on Julian Erosa (9-7). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Erosa.

Erosa carries a modest Elo edge (1280 to 1232), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Erosa has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Erosa throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Erosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Caceres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Caceres over Julian Erosa.** The model gives Caceres a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Caceres at 38% implied while our model sees 57% — a 19-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Drew Dober (13-11) taking on King Green (13-12-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Green at 1176 versus Dober at 1083. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Green is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: King Green over Drew Dober.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Green at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 61% for Dober, but our model sees only 49%. That 11-point gap favoring Green is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Michal Oleksiejczuk (9-7) taking on Cody Brundage (5-6).

Oleksiejczuk is rated at 1268 — 398 points above Brundage's 870. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Oleksiejczuk's striker game against Brundage's all-rounder approach. Oleksiejczuk brings a versatile approach, while Brundage is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oleksiejczuk throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Brundage is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Oleksiejczuk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michal Oleksiejczuk over Cody Brundage.** The model gives Oleksiejczuk a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 70% for Oleksiejczuk, but our model sees only 64%. That 6-point gap favoring Brundage is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Cory McKenna (3-2) taking on Cheyanne Vlismas (2-1). Vlismas will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Vlismas carries a modest Elo edge (982 to 929), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vlismas throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. McKenna is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Vlismas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cory McKenna over Cheyanne Vlismas.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward McKenna at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Matthew Semelsberger (5-5) taking on Jake Matthews (15-7). Semelsberger is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Matthews is rated at 1295 — 434 points above Semelsberger's 861. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Matthews has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Semelsberger's striker game against Matthews's all-rounder approach. Semelsberger brings a versatile approach, while Matthews is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Semelsberger throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Matthews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Matthews has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jake Matthews over Matthew Semelsberger.** We're leaning Matthews here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Said Nurmagomedov (7-3) taking on Saidyokub Kakhramonov (2-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Nurmagomedov at 1181, Kakhramonov at 1182. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nurmagomedov throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Kakhramonov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.6 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Saidyokub Kakhramonov over Said Nurmagomedov.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kakhramonov at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 49% for Nurmagomedov, but our model sees only 46%. That 4-point gap favoring Kakhramonov is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafa Garcia (5-4) taking on Maheshate (2-3). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Maheshate.

Garcia is rated at 1419 — 601 points above Maheshate's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Garcia's wrestler game against Maheshate's striker approach. Garcia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Maheshate brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maheshate throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Maheshate has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Maheshate over Rafa Garcia.** The model gives Maheshate a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Rinat Fakhretdinov (5-0-1) taking on Bryan Battle (6-1). Battle will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Fakhretdinov at 1483, Battle at 1469. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Fakhretdinov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Battle is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Fakhretdinov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Battle throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Fakhretdinov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Fakhretdinov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rinat Fakhretdinov over Bryan Battle.** The model gives Fakhretdinov a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Manel Kape (6-3) taking on David Dvorak (3-2).

Kape is rated at 1586 — 630 points above Dvorak's 956. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kape throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Kape is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Dvorak has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: David Dvorak over Manel Kape.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dvorak at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 67% for Kape, but our model sees only 48%. That 18-point gap favoring Dvorak is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Sergey Morozov (2-2) taking on Journey Newson (1-3).

Morozov is rated at 1124 — 309 points above Newson's 815. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morozov throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Morozov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Newson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sergey Morozov over Journey Newson.** We're leaning Morozov here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.