UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
Saturday, December 10, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·12 fights
Model: 8/11(73%)
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Main Card
Light Heavyweight
Blachowicz 22%78% Ankalaev
Over/UnderOver 67%
Under 33%Over 67%
STRONGMarket: 26% (-3.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +30(favors Blachowicz)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Blachowicz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Ankalaev)
LightweightHIT
Paddy Pimblett won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pimblett 61%39% Gordon
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 69% (-8.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +114(favors Pimblett)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Gordon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Pimblett)
Catch WeightHIT
Santiago Ponzinibbio won by KO/TKO (R3)
Ponzinibbio 52%48% Morono
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-7.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +106(favors Ponzinibbio)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Ponzinibbio)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Ponzinibbio)
MiddleweightHIT
Dricus Du Plessis won by Submission (R3)
Plessis 65%35% Till
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+0.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +48(favors Plessis)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.8(favors Plessis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Plessis)
FeatherweightMISS
Ilia Topuria won by Submission (R2)
Topuria 43%57% Mitchell
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEANMarket: 56% (-13.1% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +120(favors Topuria)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Topuria)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Mitchell)
Prelims
BantamweightHIT
Raul Rosas Jr. won by Submission (R1)
Jr. 60%40% Perrin
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +215(favors Jr.)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.3(favors Perrin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Perrin)
HeavyweightHIT
Jairzinho Rozenstruik won by KO/TKO (R1)
Rozenstruik 51%49% Daukaus
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
TOSS-UPMarket: 61% (-10.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +5(favors Rozenstruik)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.8(favors Daukaus)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Daukaus)
MiddleweightHIT
Edmen Shahbazyan won by KO/TKO (R2)
Shahbazyan 72%28% Lungiambula
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-2.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +479(favors Shahbazyan)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Lungiambula)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Lungiambula)
MiddleweightMISS
Chris Curtis won by KO/TKO (R2)
Curtis 41%59% Buckley
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
LEANMarket: 38% (+2.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +224(favors Curtis)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Curtis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Buckley)
Early Prelims
FeatherweightMISS
Billy Quarantillo won by KO/TKO (R2)
Quarantillo 40%60% Hernandez
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEANMarket: 62% (-21.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +21(favors Quarantillo)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Quarantillo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Quarantillo)
FeatherweightHIT
TJ Brown won by Submission (R3)
Brown 52%48% Silva
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -100(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.7(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.5(favors Brown)
BantamweightHIT
Cameron Saaiman won by KO/TKO (R3)
Saaiman 76%24% Koslow
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 73% (+2.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Koslow)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Koslow)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Koslow)