UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Jan Blachowicz (12-8-1) taking on Magomed Ankalaev (12-1-1). Blachowicz will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ankalaev is rated at 1772 — 194 points above Blachowicz's 1578. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ankalaev has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Blachowicz's all-rounder game against Ankalaev's striker approach. Blachowicz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ankalaev brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blachowicz throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Ankalaev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Ankalaev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Magomed Ankalaev over Jan Blachowicz.** The model is firm on this one: Ankalaev at 77%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Paddy Pimblett (7-0) taking on Jared Gordon (9-6). Pimblett will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pimblett is rated at 1568 — 359 points above Gordon's 1209. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pimblett rides a 7-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Pimblett's wrestler game against Gordon's striker approach. Pimblett looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gordon brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gordon throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Pimblett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Gordon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paddy Pimblett over Jared Gordon.** The model gives Pimblett a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 69% for Pimblett, but our model sees only 62%. That 8-point gap favoring Gordon is worth watching.

The Catch Weight matchup features Santiago Ponzinibbio (12-7) taking on Alex Morono (13-9).

Ponzinibbio is rated at 1177 — 309 points above Morono's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Ponzinibbio's striker game against Morono's all-rounder approach. Ponzinibbio brings a versatile approach, while Morono is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ponzinibbio throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Ponzinibbio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Morono has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Morono over Santiago Ponzinibbio.** The model gives Morono a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 60% for Ponzinibbio, but our model sees only 43%. That 17-point gap favoring Morono is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Dricus Du Plessis (9-0) taking on Darren Till (6-4-1).

Plessis is rated at 1860 — 564 points above Till's 1296. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Plessis rides a 9-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Plessis's all-rounder game against Till's striker approach. Plessis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Till brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Plessis throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Plessis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Plessis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dricus Du Plessis over Darren Till.** We're leaning Plessis here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Plessis at 64% implied while our model sees 69% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Ilia Topuria (8-0) taking on Bryce Mitchell (8-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Mitchell.

Topuria is rated at 2094 — 739 points above Mitchell's 1355. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Topuria rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Topuria's knockout artist game against Mitchell's wrestler approach. Topuria is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Mitchell looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Topuria throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Mitchell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Topuria has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ilia Topuria over Bryce Mitchell.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Topuria at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 56% for Topuria, but our model sees only 52%. That 5-point gap favoring Mitchell is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raul Rosas Jr. (4-1) taking on Jay Perrin (0-2).

Jr. is rated at 1251 — 470 points above Perrin's 781. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jr. rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perrin throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Perrin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Jr. has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Raul Rosas Jr. over Jay Perrin.** The model gives Jr. a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jairzinho Rozenstruik (9-5) taking on Chris Daukaus (4-3).

Rozenstruik is rated at 1385 — 277 points above Daukaus's 1108. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Daukaus throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Daukaus is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Daukaus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jairzinho Rozenstruik over Chris Daukaus.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rozenstruik at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 61% for Rozenstruik, but our model sees only 55%. That 6-point gap favoring Daukaus is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Edmen Shahbazyan (8-5) taking on Dalcha Lungiambula (2-4). There's a 6-inch height gap favoring Shahbazyan.

Shahbazyan is rated at 1314 — 575 points above Lungiambula's 739. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Shahbazyan's all-rounder game against Lungiambula's striker approach. Shahbazyan is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lungiambula brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lungiambula throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lungiambula is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Lungiambula has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan over Dalcha Lungiambula.** The model is firm on this one: Shahbazyan at 75%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Curtis (5-4) taking on Joaquin Buckley (11-4).

Buckley is rated at 1728 — 470 points above Curtis's 1258. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Buckley has won 6 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Curtis throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Buckley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Buckley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joaquin Buckley over Chris Curtis.** The model gives Buckley a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Curtis at 38% implied while our model sees 45% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Billy Quarantillo (6-4) taking on Alexander Hernandez (9-7).

Hernandez is rated at 1469 — 503 points above Quarantillo's 965. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Quarantillo's all-rounder game against Hernandez's striker approach. Quarantillo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hernandez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quarantillo throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Quarantillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Hernandez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alexander Hernandez over Billy Quarantillo.** The model gives Hernandez a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 62% for Quarantillo, but our model sees only 38%. That 24-point gap favoring Hernandez is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features TJ Brown (3-4) taking on Erik Silva (0-1).

Brown carries a modest Elo edge (876 to 837), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Erik Silva over TJ Brown.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Silva at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cameron Saaiman (3-2) taking on Steven Koslow (0-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Saaiman at 869, Koslow at 873. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Koslow throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Koslow is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Koslow has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cameron Saaiman over Steven Koslow.** The model is firm on this one: Saaiman at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Saaiman at 73% implied while our model sees 77% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.