UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alex Pereira (9-2) taking on Magomed Ankalaev (12-1-1). Pereira will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pereira is rated at 2004 — 231 points above Ankalaev's 1772. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ankalaev has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Pereira's all-rounder game against Ankalaev's striker approach. Pereira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ankalaev brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pereira throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ankalaev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Pereira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Pereira over Magomed Ankalaev.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pereira at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Merab Dvalishvili (14-2) taking on Cory Sandhagen (11-4). Sandhagen is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Dvalishvili is rated at 1867 — 160 points above Sandhagen's 1707. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dvalishvili rides a 14-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dvalishvili throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Dvalishvili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Sandhagen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Merab Dvalishvili over Cory Sandhagen.** We're leaning Dvalishvili here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jiri Prochazka (5-2) taking on Khalil Rountree Jr. (10-6). Prochazka is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Prochazka is rated at 1806 — 300 points above Jr.'s 1506. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Prochazka's all-rounder game against Jr.'s striker approach. Prochazka is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Jr. brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prochazka throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Prochazka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Jr. has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jiri Prochazka over Khalil Rountree Jr..** We're leaning Prochazka here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Youssef Zalal (7-3-1) taking on Josh Emmett (10-5). Zalal is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Zalal is rated at 1532 — 177 points above Emmett's 1356. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Zalal rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Zalal's wrestler game against Emmett's striker approach. Zalal looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Emmett brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zalal throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Zalal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Zalal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Youssef Zalal over Josh Emmett.** We're leaning Zalal here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Joe Pyfer (5-1) taking on Abus Magomedov (4-2). Magomedov will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pyfer is rated at 1530 — 250 points above Magomedov's 1280. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Magomedov has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pyfer throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Magomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Magomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joe Pyfer over Abus Magomedov.** The model gives Pyfer a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Ateba Gautier (3-0) taking on Tre'ston Vines (0-0). Gautier is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Gautier is rated at 1266 — 345 points above Vines's 921. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Gautier rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gautier throws significantly more leather — a 10.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Vines is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Vines has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ateba Gautier over Tre'ston Vines.** We're leaning Gautier here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Catch Weight matchup features Daniel Santos (3-1) taking on JooSang Yoo (1-0). Yoo will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Santos is rated at 1320 — 306 points above Yoo's 1014. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Santos rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yoo throws significantly more leather — a 8.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Daniel Santos over JooSang Yoo.** The model gives Santos a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jakub Wiklacz (1-0) taking on Patchy Mix (0-1).

Wiklacz is rated at 1208 — 282 points above Mix's 926. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mix throws significantly more leather — a 8.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Mix is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Wiklacz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Patchy Mix over Jakub Wiklacz.** The model gives Mix a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Edmen Shahbazyan (8-5) taking on Andre Muniz (6-3). Muniz will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Shahbazyan is rated at 1314 — 280 points above Muniz's 1034. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Shahbazyan is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Muniz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Muniz the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shahbazyan throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Muniz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Muniz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan over Andre Muniz.** The model gives Shahbazyan a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Punahele Soriano (6-4) taking on Nikolay Veretennikov (1-3). Veretennikov is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Soriano is rated at 1288 — 234 points above Veretennikov's 1054. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Soriano rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soriano throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Soriano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Soriano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Punahele Soriano over Nikolay Veretennikov.** We're leaning Soriano here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Yana Santos (6-5) taking on Macy Chiasson (8-4). Chiasson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Santos is rated at 1304 — 159 points above Chiasson's 1145. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Santos's striker game against Chiasson's wrestler approach. Santos brings a versatile approach, while Chiasson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Chiasson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Macy Chiasson over Yana Santos.** The model gives Chiasson a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Farid Basharat (5-0) taking on Chris Gutierrez (10-3-1). Basharat will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Basharat is rated at 1459 — 161 points above Gutierrez's 1298. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Basharat rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Basharat's wrestler game against Gutierrez's striker approach. Basharat looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gutierrez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gutierrez throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Basharat is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Gutierrez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Farid Basharat over Chris Gutierrez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Basharat at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Ramiz Brahimaj (5-3) taking on Austin Vanderford (1-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Brahimaj at 1144 versus Vanderford at 1010. That 134-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Brahimaj rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vanderford throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Vanderford is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Vanderford has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Austin Vanderford over Ramiz Brahimaj.** The model gives Vanderford a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Veronica Hardy (4-5) taking on Brogan Walker (0-2). Walker will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Hardy is rated at 1091 — 324 points above Walker's 767. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hardy throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hardy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Hardy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Veronica Hardy over Brogan Walker.** The model is firm on this one: Hardy at 79%.