UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo
Saturday, October 15, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·11 fights
Model: 9/11(82%)
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Main Card
Women's FlyweightHIT
Alexa Grasso won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Grasso 73%27% Araujo
Over/UnderOver 68%
Under 32%Over 68%
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+6.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -4(favors Araujo)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Grasso)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Araujo)
BantamweightHIT
Jonathan Martinez won by KO/TKO (R2)
Martinez 76%24% Swanson
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONGMarket: 66% (+9.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -96(favors Swanson)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Swanson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Martinez)
MiddleweightHIT
Dusko Todorovic won by KO/TKO (R2)
Todorovic 74%26% Wright
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+8.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +60(favors Todorovic)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Wright)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Wright)
BantamweightMISS
Raphael Assuncao won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Assuncao 21%79% Henry
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
STRONGMarket: 22% (-0.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +95(favors Assuncao)
→Striking volume advantage: -9.6(favors Henry)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Assuncao)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Alonzo Menifield won by KO/TKO (R1)
Menifield 65%35% Cirkunov
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
LEANMarket: 65% (+0.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +180(favors Menifield)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Menifield)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Cirkunov)
BantamweightHIT
Mana Martinez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Martinez 61%39% Davis
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 58% (+2.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +47(favors Martinez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Martinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Davis)
Prelims
MiddleweightMISS
Jacob Malkoun won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Malkoun 44%56% Maximov
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEANMarket: 45% (-1.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +14(favors Malkoun)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Malkoun)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Maximov)
FeatherweightHIT
Joanderson Brito won by Submission (R1)
Brito 82%18% Alexander
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
STRONGMarket: 78% (+3.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +214(favors Brito)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Brito)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Brito)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Piera Rodriguez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rodriguez 61%39% Hughes
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
LEANMarket: 61% (-0.1% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +12(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Hughes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Rodriguez)
FlyweightHIT
Tatsuro Taira won by Submission (R2)
Taira 77%23% Vergara
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
STRONGMarket: 70% (+7.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +172(favors Taira)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Vergara)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Taira)
WelterweightHIT
Pete Rodriguez won by KO/TKO (R1)
Rodriguez 81%19% Jackson
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
STRONGMarket: 84% (-3.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -26(favors Jackson)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Jackson)