UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo
Saturday, October 15, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 9/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Women's Flyweight✓
Alexa Grasso won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Grasso 69%31% Araujo
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+2.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +5(favors Grasso)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Grasso)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Araujo)
Bantamweight✓
Jonathan Martinez won by KO/TKO (R2)
Martinez 73%27% Swanson
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+7.4% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -51(favors Swanson)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Swanson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Martinez)
Middleweight✓
Dusko Todorovic won by KO/TKO (R2)
Todorovic 73%27% Wright
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+6.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +49(favors Todorovic)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Wright)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Wright)
Bantamweight✗
Raphael Assuncao won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Assuncao 17%83% Henry
STRONGMarket: 22% (-5.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -6(favors Henry)
→Striking volume advantage: -9.6(favors Henry)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Assuncao)
Light Heavyweight✓
Alonzo Menifield won by KO/TKO (R1)
Menifield 64%36% Cirkunov
LEANMarket: 65% (-1.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +298(favors Menifield)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Menifield)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Cirkunov)
Bantamweight✓
Mana Martinez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Martinez 62%38% Davis
LEANMarket: 58% (+3.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +88(favors Martinez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Martinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Davis)
Middleweight✗
Jacob Malkoun won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Malkoun 46%54% Maximov
TOSS-UPMarket: 45% (+1.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -19(favors Maximov)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Malkoun)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Maximov)
Featherweight✓
Joanderson Brito won by Submission (R1)
Brito 81%19% Alexander
STRONGMarket: 78% (+2.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +124(favors Brito)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Brito)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Brito)
Women's Strawweight✓
Piera Rodriguez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rodriguez 61%39% Hughes
LEANMarket: 61% (-0.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +3(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Hughes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Rodriguez)
Flyweight✓
Tatsuro Taira won by Submission (R2)
Taira 77%23% Vergara
STRONG
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +114(favors Taira)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Vergara)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Taira)
Welterweight✓
Pete Rodriguez won by KO/TKO (R1)
Rodriguez 84%16% Jackson
STRONGMarket: 84% (-0.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -17(favors Jackson)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Jackson)