UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Flyweight championship matchup features Alexa Grasso (8-4-1) taking on Viviane Araujo (7-5).

Grasso is rated at 1376 — 169 points above Araujo's 1207. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grasso throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Araujo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Grasso has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alexa Grasso over Viviane Araujo.** We're leaning Grasso here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jonathan Martinez (10-4) taking on Cub Swanson (14-10).

There's a real Elo separation here: Martinez at 1343 versus Swanson at 1255. That 88-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Swanson throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Martinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Martinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jonathan Martinez over Cub Swanson.** We're leaning Martinez here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Martinez at 66% implied while our model sees 73% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Dusko Todorovic (3-6) taking on Jordan Wright (2-4). Wright will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Todorovic is rated at 871 — 178 points above Wright's 693. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wright throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Wright is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Todorovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dusko Todorovic over Jordan Wright.** We're leaning Todorovic here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Todorovic at 66% implied while our model sees 73% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raphael Assuncao (12-6) taking on Victor Henry (3-2). Henry is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Henry carries a modest Elo edge (1135 to 1099), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Henry throws significantly more leather — a 9.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Assuncao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Assuncao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Victor Henry over Raphael Assuncao.** The model is firm on this one: Henry at 83%. The market implies 22% for Assuncao, but our model sees only 17%. That 5-point gap favoring Henry is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alonzo Menifield (10-5-1) taking on Misha Cirkunov (6-6). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Cirkunov.

Menifield is rated at 1207 — 340 points above Cirkunov's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Menifield throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Cirkunov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Menifield has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alonzo Menifield over Misha Cirkunov.** The model gives Menifield a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Mana Martinez (2-1) taking on Brandon Davis (2-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Martinez at 957 versus Davis at 825. That 132-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martinez throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mana Martinez over Brandon Davis.** The model gives Martinez a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Martinez at 58% implied while our model sees 62% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Jacob Malkoun (4-3) taking on Nick Maximov (2-1). Maximov is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Malkoun is rated at 1322 — 363 points above Maximov's 959. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Malkoun throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Maximov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Malkoun has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nick Maximov over Jacob Malkoun.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Maximov at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Joanderson Brito (5-3) taking on Lucas Alexander (1-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Alexander.

Brito is rated at 1283 — 507 points above Alexander's 776. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brito throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Brito is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Alexander has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joanderson Brito over Lucas Alexander.** The model is firm on this one: Brito at 81%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Piera Rodriguez (3-2) taking on Sam Hughes (5-5).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Rodriguez at 1203, Hughes at 1232. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hughes throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Piera Rodriguez over Sam Hughes.** The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Tatsuro Taira (7-1) taking on CJ Vergara (3-4).

Taira is rated at 1620 — 854 points above Vergara's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Taira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Vergara is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Taira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vergara throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Taira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Taira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tatsuro Taira over CJ Vergara.** The model is firm on this one: Taira at 77%.

The Welterweight matchup features Pete Rodriguez (1-1) taking on Mike Jackson (1-1). Jackson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Rodriguez at 863 versus Jackson at 756. That 107-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Pete Rodriguez over Mike Jackson.** The model is firm on this one: Rodriguez at 84%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.