UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
Saturday, October 1, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 5/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Women's Strawweight✗
Yan Xiaonan won by Decision - Majority (R5)
Xiaonan 42%58% Dern
LEANMarket: 36% (+6.8% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -164(favors Dern)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Xiaonan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Xiaonan)
Welterweight✓
Randy Brown won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Brown 80%20% Trinaldo
STRONGMarket: 74% (+6.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +44(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Trinaldo)
Bantamweight✓
Raoni Barcelos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barcelos 66%34% Jones
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (-3.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +153(favors Barcelos)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Barcelos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Barcelos)
Featherweight✓
Sodiq Yusuff won by Submission (R1)
Yusuff 90%10% Shainis
STRONGMarket: 88% (+1.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +427(favors Yusuff)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors Yusuff)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Yusuff)
Lightweight✓
Mike Davis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Davis 57%43% Borshchev
LEANMarket: 62% (-5.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +180(favors Davis)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.2(favors Davis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Davis)
Catch Weight✗
Daniel Santos won by KO/TKO (R2)
Santos 36%64% Castaneda
LEANMarket: 37% (-1.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -316(favors Castaneda)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Castaneda)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Castaneda)
Heavyweight✓
Ilir Latifi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Latifi 59%41% Oleinik
LEANMarket: 64% (-4.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +112(favors Latifi)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Oleinik)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Latifi)
Lightweight✗
Joaquim Silva won by KO/TKO (R2)
Silva 47%53% Ronson
TOSS-UPMarket: 55% (-7.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +158(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Ronson)
Middleweight✗
Brendan Allen won by Submission (R1)
Allen 48%52% Jotko
TOSS-UPMarket: 48% (+0.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -106(favors Jotko)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Allen)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Allen)
Catch Weight✗
Chelsea Chandler won by KO/TKO (R1)
Chandler 40%60% Stoliarenko
LEANMarket: 46% (-5.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +64(favors Chandler)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Stoliarenko)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Stoliarenko)
Bantamweight✗
Guido Cannetti won by Submission (R1)
Cannetti 18%82% Costa
STRONGMarket: 27% (-8.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +87(favors Cannetti)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Costa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Cannetti)