UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Strawweight championship matchup features Yan Xiaonan (9-3) taking on Mackenzie Dern (10-5).

Dern carries a modest Elo edge (1472 to 1412), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Xiaonan's striker game against Dern's wrestler approach. Xiaonan brings a versatile approach, while Dern looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Xiaonan throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Xiaonan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Xiaonan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mackenzie Dern over Yan Xiaonan.** The model gives Dern a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Xiaonan at 36% implied while our model sees 42% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Randy Brown (14-6) taking on Francisco Trinaldo (18-7). Brown is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Brown carries a modest Elo edge (1381 to 1329), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Trinaldo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Trinaldo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Randy Brown over Francisco Trinaldo.** The model is firm on this one: Brown at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Brown at 74% implied while our model sees 80% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raoni Barcelos (9-4) taking on Trevin Jones (1-3). Jones will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Barcelos is rated at 1410 — 552 points above Jones's 859. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Barcelos rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barcelos throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Barcelos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Barcelos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Raoni Barcelos over Trevin Jones.** We're leaning Barcelos here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 70% for Barcelos, but our model sees only 66%. That 3-point gap favoring Jones is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Sodiq Yusuff (6-3) taking on Don Shainis (0-1). Yusuff is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Yusuff is rated at 1113 — 211 points above Shainis's 902. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yusuff throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Yusuff is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Shainis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sodiq Yusuff over Don Shainis.** The model is firm on this one: Yusuff at 90%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Mike Davis (4-2) taking on Viacheslav Borshchev (3-5-1). Davis will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Davis is rated at 1249 — 437 points above Borshchev's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mike Davis over Viacheslav Borshchev.** The model gives Davis a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 62% for Davis, but our model sees only 57%. That 5-point gap favoring Borshchev is worth watching.

The Catch Weight matchup features Daniel Santos (3-1) taking on John Castaneda (4-3). Castaneda will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Santos is rated at 1320 — 203 points above Castaneda's 1117. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Santos rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Castaneda throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Castaneda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Castaneda has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: John Castaneda over Daniel Santos.** The model gives Castaneda a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Ilir Latifi (9-6) taking on Aleksei Oleinik (9-7). Oleinik is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Latifi at 1195 versus Oleinik at 1073. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Latifi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Oleinik looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Oleinik the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oleinik throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Latifi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Latifi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ilir Latifi over Aleksei Oleinik.** The model gives Latifi a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 64% for Latifi, but our model sees only 59%. That 5-point gap favoring Oleinik is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Joaquim Silva (6-5) taking on Jesse Ronson (0-4).

Silva is rated at 1139 — 454 points above Ronson's 685. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Ronson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Ronson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jesse Ronson over Joaquim Silva.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ronson at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 55% for Silva, but our model sees only 47%. That 8-point gap favoring Ronson is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Brendan Allen (13-4) taking on Krzysztof Jotko (11-5).

Allen is rated at 1696 — 475 points above Jotko's 1222. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Allen's all-rounder game against Jotko's striker approach. Allen is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Jotko brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Allen throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Allen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jotko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Krzysztof Jotko over Brendan Allen.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jotko at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Catch Weight matchup features Chelsea Chandler (2-2) taking on Julija Stoliarenko (2-6).

Chandler carries a modest Elo edge (913 to 842), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stoliarenko throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Stoliarenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Chandler has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Julija Stoliarenko over Chelsea Chandler.** The model gives Stoliarenko a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 46% for Chandler, but our model sees only 40%. That 6-point gap favoring Stoliarenko is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Guido Cannetti (4-5) taking on Randy Costa (2-3). Costa is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Cannetti is rated at 1005 — 204 points above Costa's 801. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Cannetti's all-rounder game against Costa's striker approach. Cannetti is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Costa brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Costa throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cannetti is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Costa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Randy Costa over Guido Cannetti.** The model is firm on this one: Costa at 82%. The market implies 27% for Cannetti, but our model sees only 18%. That 9-point gap favoring Costa is worth watching.