UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall
Saturday, July 23, 2022·London, England, United Kingdom
Model Record: 12/14Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Heavyweight✓
Curtis Blaydes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Blaydes 52%48% Aspinall
TOSS-UPMarket: 43% (+9.8% edge)
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: +113(favors Blaydes)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.1(favors Aspinall)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Blaydes)
Middleweight✓
Jack Hermansson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hermansson 52%48% Curtis
TOSS-UPMarket: 50% (+2.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +17(favors Hermansson)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Curtis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Hermansson)
Lightweight✓
Paddy Pimblett won by Submission (R2)
Pimblett 71%29% Leavitt
CONFIDENTMarket: 71% (+0.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +33(favors Pimblett)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Pimblett)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Pimblett)
Light Heavyweight✓
Nikita Krylov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Krylov 59%41% Gustafsson
LEANMarket: 65% (-5.2% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -109(favors Gustafsson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Gustafsson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Krylov)
Women's Flyweight✓
Molly McCann won by KO/TKO (R1)
McCann 89%11% Goldy
STRONGMarket: 80% (+9.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +260(favors McCann)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors McCann)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors McCann)
Light Heavyweight✗
Volkan Oezdemir won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Oezdemir 35%65% Craig
CONFIDENTMarket: 57% (-22.1% edge)
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: -268(favors Craig)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Oezdemir)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Craig)
Lightweight✗
Ludovit Klein won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Klein 27%73% Jones
CONFIDENTMarket: 21% (+5.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -73(favors Jones)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Jones)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.0(favors Jones)
Lightweight✓
Marc Diakiese won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Diakiese 89%11% Hadzovic
STRONGMarket: 78% (+11.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -112(favors Hadzovic)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Hadzovic)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Diakiese)
Featherweight✓
Nathaniel Wood won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Wood 85%15% Rosa
STRONGMarket: 82% (+3.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +301(favors Wood)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Wood)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Wood)
Featherweight✓
Jonathan Pearce won by KO/TKO (R2)
Pearce 66%34% Amirkhani
CONFIDENTMarket: 61% (+4.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +121(favors Pearce)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Pearce)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Pearce)
Flyweight✓
Muhammad Mokaev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mokaev 86%14% Johnson
STRONGMarket: 80% (+5.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +108(favors Mokaev)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Mokaev)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Johnson)
Lightweight✓
Jai Herbert won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Herbert 76%24% Nelson
STRONGMarket: 72% (+4.5% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +72(favors Herbert)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Nelson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Nelson)
Women's Flyweight✓
Victoria Leonardo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Leonardo 51%49% Bohm
TOSS-UPMarket: 49% (+2.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -96(favors Bohm)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Leonardo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Bohm)
Welterweight✓
Nicolas Dalby won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dalby 63%37% Silva
LEANMarket: 67% (-4.0% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -26(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Silva)