UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Curtis Blaydes (13-5) taking on Tom Aspinall (8-1).

Aspinall is rated at 1917 — 283 points above Blaydes's 1634. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Aspinall has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Blaydes's striker game against Aspinall's submission artist approach. Blaydes brings a versatile approach, while Aspinall is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aspinall throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Blaydes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Blaydes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Curtis Blaydes over Tom Aspinall.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Blaydes at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Blaydes at 43% implied while our model sees 52% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Jack Hermansson (11-7) taking on Chris Curtis (5-4). Hermansson is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Curtis at 1258 versus Hermansson at 1117. That 141-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Hermansson's all-rounder game against Curtis's striker approach. Hermansson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Curtis brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Curtis throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Hermansson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Hermansson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jack Hermansson over Chris Curtis.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hermansson at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Paddy Pimblett (7-0) taking on Jordan Leavitt (5-3).

Pimblett is rated at 1568 — 371 points above Leavitt's 1198. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pimblett rides a 7-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pimblett throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Pimblett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Leavitt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paddy Pimblett over Jordan Leavitt.** We're leaning Pimblett here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Nikita Krylov (11-9) taking on Alexander Gustafsson (10-7). Gustafsson is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Krylov is rated at 1400 — 231 points above Gustafsson's 1169. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Krylov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gustafsson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Krylov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gustafsson throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Krylov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Gustafsson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nikita Krylov over Alexander Gustafsson.** The model gives Krylov a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 65% for Krylov, but our model sees only 59%. That 5-point gap favoring Gustafsson is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Molly McCann (7-6) taking on Hannah Goldy (1-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — McCann at 834, Goldy at 812. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. McCann throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. McCann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. McCann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Molly McCann over Hannah Goldy.** The model is firm on this one: McCann at 89%. Notably, the betting market has McCann at 80% implied while our model sees 89% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Volkan Oezdemir (8-7) taking on Paul Craig (9-9-1).

Oezdemir is rated at 1501 — 456 points above Craig's 1045. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Oezdemir's striker game against Craig's submission artist approach. Oezdemir brings a versatile approach, while Craig is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oezdemir throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Craig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Craig has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paul Craig over Volkan Oezdemir.** We're leaning Craig here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 57% for Oezdemir, but our model sees only 35%. That 22-point gap favoring Craig is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Ludovit Klein (7-3-1) taking on Mason Jones (2-2). Jones is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Klein is rated at 1364 — 188 points above Jones's 1175. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Jones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mason Jones over Ludovit Klein.** We're leaning Jones here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Klein at 21% implied while our model sees 27% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Marc Diakiese (7-7) taking on Damir Hadzovic (4-5). Diakiese will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Diakiese is rated at 1050 — 168 points above Hadzovic's 882. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hadzovic throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Diakiese is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Hadzovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marc Diakiese over Damir Hadzovic.** The model is firm on this one: Diakiese at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Diakiese at 78% implied while our model sees 89% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Nathaniel Wood (9-3) taking on Charles Rosa (5-7). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Rosa.

Wood is rated at 1389 — 573 points above Rosa's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Wood is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Rosa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Rosa the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Wood is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Wood has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nathaniel Wood over Charles Rosa.** The model is firm on this one: Wood at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Wood at 82% implied while our model sees 85% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Jonathan Pearce (5-3) taking on Makwan Amirkhani (7-6).

Pearce carries a modest Elo edge (996 to 965), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pearce throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pearce is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Amirkhani has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jonathan Pearce over Makwan Amirkhani.** We're leaning Pearce here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Pearce at 61% implied while our model sees 66% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Muhammad Mokaev (6-0) taking on Charles Johnson (7-5).

Mokaev is rated at 1480 — 383 points above Johnson's 1097. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mokaev rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Mokaev's wrestler game against Johnson's striker approach. Mokaev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Johnson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mokaev throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Muhammad Mokaev over Charles Johnson.** The model is firm on this one: Mokaev at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Mokaev at 80% implied while our model sees 86% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Jai Herbert (3-4-1) taking on Kyle Nelson (4-5-1). Herbert is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Nelson is rated at 1271 — 256 points above Herbert's 1014. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nelson throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Nelson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jai Herbert over Kyle Nelson.** The model is firm on this one: Herbert at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Herbert at 72% implied while our model sees 76% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Victoria Leonardo (1-3) taking on Mandy Bohm (0-2). Bohm is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Bohm carries a modest Elo edge (849 to 780), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Leonardo throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Bohm is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bohm has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Victoria Leonardo over Mandy Bohm.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Leonardo at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Nicolas Dalby (7-5-1) taking on Claudio Silva (5-2). Dalby will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Dalby is rated at 1283 — 230 points above Silva's 1053. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Dalby's striker game against Silva's wrestler approach. Dalby brings a versatile approach, while Silva looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Dalby has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nicolas Dalby over Claudio Silva.** The model gives Dalby a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 67% for Dalby, but our model sees only 63%. That 4-point gap favoring Silva is worth watching.