UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Josh Emmett (10-5) taking on Calvin Kattar (7-7). Kattar is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Emmett at 1356 versus Kattar at 1231. That 124-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Emmett's striker game against Kattar's all-rounder approach. Emmett brings a versatile approach, while Kattar is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kattar throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Kattar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Emmett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Calvin Kattar over Josh Emmett. We're leaning Kattar here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Kevin Holland (15-11) taking on Tim Means (15-13). Holland will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Holland is rated at 1257 — 384 points above Means's 872. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Holland's knockout artist game against Means's all-rounder approach. Holland is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Means is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Means throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Means is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Means has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Holland over Tim Means. The model is firm on this one: Holland at 82%. Notably, the betting market has Holland at 74% implied while our model sees 82% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Joaquin Buckley (11-4) taking on Albert Duraev (2-1).

Buckley is rated at 1728 — 729 points above Duraev's 999. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Buckley rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Duraev throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Buckley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Buckley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Albert Duraev over Joaquin Buckley. The model gives Duraev a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Buckley at 34% implied while our model sees 38% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Damir Ismagulov (5-1) taking on Guram Kutateladze (2-2).

Ismagulov is rated at 1202 — 250 points above Kutateladze's 952. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ismagulov throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ismagulov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Ismagulov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Damir Ismagulov over Guram Kutateladze. We're leaning Ismagulov here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Ismagulov at 66% implied while our model sees 74% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Gregory Rodrigues (8-3) taking on Julian Marquez (3-4). Rodrigues will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Rodrigues is rated at 1515 — 854 points above Marquez's 660. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rodrigues's striker game against Marquez's wrestler approach. Rodrigues brings a versatile approach, while Marquez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodrigues throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodrigues is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Marquez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gregory Rodrigues over Julian Marquez. The model gives Rodrigues a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Adrian Yanez (6-2) taking on Tony Kelley (2-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Yanez at 1203 versus Kelley at 1080. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yanez throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Kelley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Yanez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Adrian Yanez over Tony Kelley. We're leaning Yanez here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Natalia Silva (7-0) taking on Jasmine Jasudavicius (8-2). Jasudavicius is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Silva is rated at 1618 — 260 points above Jasudavicius's 1358. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Silva rides a 7-fight win streak into this one, while Jasudavicius has won 5 straight.

Stylistically this is Silva's striker game against Jasudavicius's wrestler approach. Silva brings a versatile approach, while Jasudavicius looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jasudavicius throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jasudavicius is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jasmine Jasudavicius over Natalia Silva. The model gives Jasudavicius a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Jeremiah Wells (4-2) taking on Court McGee (11-12).

Wells is rated at 1254 — 217 points above McGee's 1037. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Wells looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while McGee is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Wells the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGee throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. McGee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. McGee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeremiah Wells over Court McGee. The model gives Wells a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Ricardo Ramos (8-6) taking on Danny Chavez (1-1-1). Ramos will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Chavez carries a modest Elo edge (862 to 828), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ramos throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ramos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Ramos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricardo Ramos over Danny Chavez. The model is firm on this one: Ramos at 82%. Notably, the betting market has Ramos at 74% implied while our model sees 82% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Maria Oliveira (1-2) taking on Gloria de Paula (1-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Oliveira at 792, Paula at 815. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Paula is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Paula has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gloria de Paula over Maria Oliveira. We're leaning Paula here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Oliveira at 28% implied while our model sees 34% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cody Stamann (7-6-1) taking on Eddie Wineland (6-9). Wineland will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Stamann carries a modest Elo edge (932 to 865), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wineland throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Stamann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Stamann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody Stamann over Eddie Wineland. The model is firm on this one: Stamann at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Stamann at 86% implied while our model sees 90% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Phil Hawes (4-3) taking on Deron Winn (2-2). Hawes is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Winn carries a modest Elo edge (891 to 827), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Winn throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Winn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Hawes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Phil Hawes over Deron Winn. The model is firm on this one: Hawes at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Hawes at 70% implied while our model sees 84% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Roman Dolidze (9-3) taking on Kyle Daukaus (3-4).

Dolidze is rated at 1546 — 377 points above Daukaus's 1170. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dolidze rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Dolidze's striker game against Daukaus's submission artist approach. Dolidze brings a versatile approach, while Daukaus is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Daukaus throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Dolidze is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Dolidze has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyle Daukaus over Roman Dolidze. The model is firm on this one: Daukaus at 77%. The market implies 29% for Dolidze, but our model sees only 23%. That 7-point gap favoring Daukaus is worth watching.