UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic
Saturday, May 14, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·11 fights
Model: 4/11(36%)
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Main Card
Light HeavyweightMISS
Jan Blachowicz won by KO/TKO (R3)
Blachowicz 39%61% Rakic
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
LEANMarket: 35% (+4.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +126(favors Blachowicz)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Rakic)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Blachowicz)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Ryan Spann won by Submission (R1)
Spann 29%71% Cutelaba
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
CONFIDENTMarket: 31% (-1.2% edge)
Submission Artist vs Knockout Artist — Submission Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +120(favors Spann)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Cutelaba)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.4(favors Cutelaba)
BantamweightHIT
Davey Grant won by KO/TKO (R3)
Grant 67%33% Smolka
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (-4.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +177(favors Grant)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Smolka)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Smolka)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Katlyn Cerminara won by Decision - Split (R3)
Cerminara 42%58% Ribas
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +91(favors Cerminara)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Cerminara)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Ribas)
LightweightHIT
Manuel Torres won by KO/TKO (R1)
Torres 59%41% Camacho
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEANMarket: 54% (+4.5% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +131(favors Torres)
→Striking volume advantage: -7.0(favors Camacho)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Camacho)
FlyweightMISS
Allan Nascimento won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nascimento 31%69% Hadley
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENTMarket: 35% (-3.4% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -78(favors Hadley)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Nascimento)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hadley)
Prelims
Women's FlyweightMISS
Viviane Araujo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Araujo 39%61% Lee
Over/UnderOver 68%
Under 32%Over 68%
LEANMarket: 46% (-6.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -91(favors Lee)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Lee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Lee)
LightweightMISS
Michael Johnson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Johnson 41%59% Patrick
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 59% (-17.7% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -92(favors Patrick)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.2(favors Patrick)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Virna Jandiroba won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jandiroba 66%34% Hill
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+1.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +128(favors Jandiroba)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Jandiroba)
FlyweightHIT
Tatsuro Taira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Taira 82%18% Candelario
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 74% (+7.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Candelario)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Candelario)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Candelario)
MiddleweightMISS
Andre Petroski won by Submission (R1)
Petroski 33%67% Maximov
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
CONFIDENTMarket: 22% (+11.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -45(favors Maximov)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Petroski)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.2(favors Maximov)