UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jan Blachowicz (12-8-1) taking on Aleksandar Rakic (6-4).

Blachowicz is rated at 1578 — 295 points above Rakic's 1283. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rakic throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Blachowicz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Blachowicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Aleksandar Rakic over Jan Blachowicz.** We're leaning Rakic here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Spann (8-6) taking on Ion Cutelaba (8-9-1). Spann is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Cutelaba carries a modest Elo edge (1147 to 1116), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cutelaba throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Cutelaba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.4 more per 15 minutes. Cutelaba has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ion Cutelaba over Ryan Spann.** We're leaning Cutelaba here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Davey Grant (8-6) taking on Louis Smolka (8-8).

Grant is rated at 1200 — 326 points above Smolka's 874. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smolka throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Smolka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Smolka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Davey Grant over Louis Smolka.** We're leaning Grant here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 72% for Grant, but our model sees only 68%. That 4-point gap favoring Smolka is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Katlyn Cerminara (11-5) taking on Amanda Ribas (7-5). Cerminara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Cerminara is rated at 1283 — 235 points above Ribas's 1048. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Cerminara is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ribas looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ribas the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerminara throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Ribas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Ribas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Amanda Ribas over Katlyn Cerminara.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ribas at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Manuel Torres (4-1) taking on Frank Camacho (2-5).

Torres is rated at 1482 — 692 points above Camacho's 790. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Torres is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Camacho brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Torres the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camacho throws significantly more leather — a 7.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Camacho is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Torres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Manuel Torres over Frank Camacho.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Torres at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Allan Nascimento (3-1) taking on Jake Hadley (3-3).

Nascimento is rated at 1266 — 299 points above Hadley's 967. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Nascimento rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nascimento throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hadley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hadley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jake Hadley over Allan Nascimento.** We're leaning Hadley here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 35% for Nascimento, but our model sees only 27%. That 8-point gap favoring Hadley is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Viviane Araujo (7-5) taking on Andrea Lee (5-8).

Araujo is rated at 1207 — 343 points above Lee's 864. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Andrea Lee over Viviane Araujo.** The model gives Lee a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 46% for Araujo, but our model sees only 39%. That 7-point gap favoring Lee is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Johnson (15-15) taking on Alan Patrick (5-3).

Johnson is rated at 1245 — 382 points above Patrick's 863. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Johnson's striker game against Patrick's wrestler approach. Johnson brings a versatile approach, while Patrick looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Patrick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alan Patrick over Michael Johnson.** The model gives Patrick a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 59% for Johnson, but our model sees only 41%. That 18-point gap favoring Patrick is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Virna Jandiroba (8-3) taking on Angela Hill (13-15).

Jandiroba is rated at 1457 — 383 points above Hill's 1074. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jandiroba rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Jandiroba's wrestler game against Hill's striker approach. Jandiroba looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hill brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Jandiroba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Virna Jandiroba over Angela Hill.** The model gives Jandiroba a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Tatsuro Taira (7-1) taking on Carlos Candelario (0-1).

Taira is rated at 1620 — 820 points above Candelario's 800. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Candelario throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Candelario is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Candelario has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tatsuro Taira over Carlos Candelario.** The model is firm on this one: Taira at 81%. Notably, the betting market has Taira at 74% implied while our model sees 81% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Andre Petroski (8-3) taking on Nick Maximov (2-1). Maximov will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Petroski at 967, Maximov at 959. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Petroski throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Maximov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Petroski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nick Maximov over Andre Petroski.** The model is firm on this one: Maximov at 77%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.