UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Saturday, May 7, 2022·Phoenix, Arizona, USA
Model Record: 7/14Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Lightweight✓
Charles Oliveira won by Submission (R1)
Oliveira 58%42% Gaethje
LEANMarket: 58% (+0.1% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +138(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Gaethje)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Oliveira)
Women's Strawweight✗
Carla Esparza won by Decision - Split (R5)
Esparza 34%66% Namajunas
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (-0.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -181(favors Namajunas)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Namajunas)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.1(favors Esparza)
Lightweight✓
Michael Chandler won by KO/TKO (R2)
Chandler 58%42% Ferguson
LEANMarket: 76% (-18.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -314(favors Ferguson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Chandler)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Chandler)
Light Heavyweight✓
Ovince Saint Preux won by Decision - Split (R3)
Preux 55%45% Rua
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -210(favors Rua)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Preux)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Rua)
Welterweight✗
Randy Brown won by Decision - Split (R3)
Brown 42%58% Williams
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -46(favors Williams)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Brown)
Welterweight✗
Francisco Trinaldo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Trinaldo 40%60% Roberts
LEANMarket: 47% (-7.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +191(favors Trinaldo)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Trinaldo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Trinaldo)
Women's Featherweight✗
Macy Chiasson won by Decision - Split (R3)
Chiasson 34%66% Dumont
CONFIDENTMarket: 33% (+0.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -112(favors Dumont)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Dumont)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Dumont)
Flyweight✓
Brandon Royval won by Submission (R1)
Royval 66%34% Schnell
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (-4.0% edge)
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -102(favors Schnell)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Schnell)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Royval)
Heavyweight✗
Blagoy Ivanov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ivanov 42%58% Lima
LEANMarket: 58% (-16.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -107(favors Lima)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Ivanov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Lima)
Welterweight✓
Andre Fialho won by KO/TKO (R1)
Fialho 86%14% VanCamp
STRONGMarket: 83% (+3.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +166(favors Fialho)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Fialho)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors VanCamp)
Women's Flyweight✗
Tracy Cortez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cortez 48%52% Gatto
TOSS-UPMarket: 57% (-9.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -52(favors Gatto)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Gatto)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Cortez)
Flyweight✓
CJ Vergara won by Decision - Split (R3)
Vergara 51%49% Rodrigues
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -120(favors Rodrigues)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.2(favors Vergara)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Rodrigues)
Women's Strawweight✓
Loopy Godinez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Godinez 64%36% Carnelossi
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -50(favors Carnelossi)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Carnelossi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Godinez)
Bantamweight✗
Journey Newson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Newson 37%63% Garcia
LEAN
→Elo gap: -175(favors Garcia)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Newson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Garcia)