UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Saturday, May 7, 2022·Phoenix, Arizona, USA·14 fights
Model: 7/14(50%)
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Main Card
LightweightHIT
Charles Oliveira won by Submission (R1)
Oliveira 53%47% Gaethje
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-4.4% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +8(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Gaethje)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Oliveira)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Carla Esparza won by Decision - Split (R5)
Esparza 34%66% Namajunas
Over/UnderOver 72%
Under 28%Over 72%
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (-0.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -283(favors Namajunas)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Namajunas)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.1(favors Esparza)
LightweightHIT
Michael Chandler won by KO/TKO (R2)
Chandler 59%41% Ferguson
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 76% (-17.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -321(favors Ferguson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Chandler)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Chandler)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ovince Saint Preux won by Decision - Split (R3)
Preux 54%46% Rua
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -185(favors Rua)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Preux)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Rua)
WelterweightMISS
Randy Brown won by Decision - Split (R3)
Brown 42%58% Williams
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 49% (-7.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -63(favors Williams)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Brown)
Prelims
WelterweightMISS
Francisco Trinaldo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Trinaldo 34%66% Roberts
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENTMarket: 47% (-12.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +252(favors Trinaldo)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Trinaldo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Trinaldo)
Women's FeatherweightMISS
Macy Chiasson won by Decision - Split (R3)
Chiasson 30%70% Dumont
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENTMarket: 33% (-3.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -250(favors Dumont)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Dumont)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Dumont)
FlyweightHIT
Brandon Royval won by Submission (R1)
Royval 67%33% Schnell
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (-2.5% edge)
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: -174(favors Schnell)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Schnell)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Royval)
HeavyweightMISS
Blagoy Ivanov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ivanov 48%52% Lima
Over/UnderUnder 61%
Under 61%Over 39%
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-10.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +51(favors Ivanov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Ivanov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Lima)
Early Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Andre Fialho won by KO/TKO (R1)
Fialho 86%14% VanCamp
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
STRONGMarket: 83% (+3.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +305(favors Fialho)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Fialho)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors VanCamp)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Tracy Cortez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cortez 57%43% Gatto
Over/UnderOver 66%
Under 34%Over 66%
LEANMarket: 57% (+0.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -80(favors Gatto)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Gatto)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Cortez)
FlyweightMISS
CJ Vergara won by Decision - Split (R3)
Vergara 31%69% Rodrigues
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 25% (+6.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -200(favors Rodrigues)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.2(favors Vergara)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Rodrigues)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Loopy Godinez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Godinez 74%26% Carnelossi
Over/UnderOver 70%
Under 30%Over 70%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -73(favors Carnelossi)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Carnelossi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Godinez)
BantamweightMISS
Journey Newson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Newson 39%61% Garcia
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEANMarket: 46% (-7.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -256(favors Garcia)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Newson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Garcia)