UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Charles Oliveira (23-11) taking on Justin Gaethje (9-5). Oliveira will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Oliveira at 1846, Gaethje at 1847. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Oliveira's submission artist game against Gaethje's striker approach. Oliveira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Gaethje brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gaethje throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Gaethje has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Charles Oliveira over Justin Gaethje.** The model gives Oliveira a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight championship matchup features Carla Esparza (10-5) taking on Rose Namajunas (12-6). Namajunas is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Namajunas at 1421 versus Esparza at 1274. That 147-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Esparza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Namajunas is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Esparza the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Namajunas throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Esparza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Namajunas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rose Namajunas over Carla Esparza.** We're leaning Namajunas here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Chandler (2-4) taking on Tony Ferguson (15-8). Ferguson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Chandler is rated at 1319 — 254 points above Ferguson's 1065. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chandler throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Chandler is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Ferguson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael Chandler over Tony Ferguson.** The model gives Chandler a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 76% for Chandler, but our model sees only 58%. That 18-point gap favoring Ferguson is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ovince Saint Preux (15-12) taking on Mauricio Rua (11-11-1). Preux is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Preux carries a modest Elo edge (917 to 876), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Preux's all-rounder game against Rua's striker approach. Preux is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Rua brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Preux throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Rua is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Preux has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ovince Saint Preux over Mauricio Rua.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Preux at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Randy Brown (14-6) taking on Khaos Williams (6-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Brown.

Brown is rated at 1381 — 222 points above Williams's 1159. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Brown's all-rounder game against Williams's striker approach. Brown is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Williams brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Khaos Williams over Randy Brown.** The model gives Williams a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Francisco Trinaldo (18-7) taking on Danny Roberts (7-6). Roberts is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Trinaldo is rated at 1329 — 423 points above Roberts's 906. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Trinaldo throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Trinaldo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Trinaldo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Danny Roberts over Francisco Trinaldo.** The model gives Roberts a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 47% for Trinaldo, but our model sees only 40%. That 7-point gap favoring Roberts is worth watching.

The Women's Featherweight matchup features Macy Chiasson (8-4) taking on Norma Dumont (8-2). Chiasson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Dumont is rated at 1546 — 401 points above Chiasson's 1145. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dumont has won 5 straight.

Stylistically this is Chiasson's wrestler game against Dumont's striker approach. Chiasson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Dumont brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dumont throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Dumont is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Dumont has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Norma Dumont over Macy Chiasson.** We're leaning Dumont here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Brandon Royval (7-4) taking on Matt Schnell (7-7).

Royval is rated at 1314 — 415 points above Schnell's 899. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Royval is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Schnell looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Schnell the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schnell throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Royval is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Schnell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brandon Royval over Matt Schnell.** We're leaning Royval here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 70% for Royval, but our model sees only 66%. That 4-point gap favoring Schnell is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Blagoy Ivanov (3-4) taking on Marcos Rogerio de Lima (10-7). Lima is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lima at 1275 versus Ivanov at 1148. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Ivanov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lima is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Lima the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ivanov throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Lima has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marcos Rogerio de Lima over Blagoy Ivanov.** The model gives Lima a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 58% for Ivanov, but our model sees only 42%. That 16-point gap favoring Lima is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Andre Fialho (2-4) taking on Cameron VanCamp (0-1).

Fialho carries a modest Elo edge (865 to 807), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fialho throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. VanCamp is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. VanCamp has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Andre Fialho over Cameron VanCamp.** The model is firm on this one: Fialho at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Fialho at 83% implied while our model sees 86% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Tracy Cortez (6-1) taking on Melissa Gatto (2-2). Gatto will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Cortez is rated at 1318 — 170 points above Gatto's 1148. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gatto throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Cortez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Cortez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Melissa Gatto over Tracy Cortez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gatto at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 57% for Cortez, but our model sees only 48%. That 9-point gap favoring Gatto is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features CJ Vergara (3-4) taking on Kleydson Rodrigues (1-2).

Rodrigues is rated at 923 — 157 points above Vergara's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vergara throws significantly more leather — a 6.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodrigues is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rodrigues has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: CJ Vergara over Kleydson Rodrigues.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Vergara at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Loopy Godinez (8-5) taking on Ariane Carnelossi (3-2).

Godinez is rated at 1260 — 332 points above Carnelossi's 929. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Godinez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Carnelossi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Godinez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carnelossi throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Godinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Godinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Loopy Godinez over Ariane Carnelossi.** The model gives Godinez a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Journey Newson (1-3) taking on Fernie Garcia (0-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Newson at 815 versus Garcia at 725. That 90-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Newson throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Garcia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Fernie Garcia over Journey Newson.** The model gives Garcia a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.