UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall
Saturday, March 19, 2022·London, England, United Kingdom
Model Record: 8/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Heavyweight✓
Tom Aspinall won by Submission (R1)
Aspinall 60%40% Volkov
LEANMarket: 54% (+5.9% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: -184(favors Volkov)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Aspinall)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Aspinall)
Featherweight✓
Arnold Allen won by KO/TKO (R1)
Allen 68%32% Hooker
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +184(favors Allen)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Hooker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Hooker)
Lightweight✓
Paddy Pimblett won by Submission (R1)
Pimblett 72%28% Vargas
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +121(favors Pimblett)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.8(favors Pimblett)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Vargas)
Welterweight✓
Gunnar Nelson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nelson 86%14% Sato
STRONGMarket: 83% (+2.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +266(favors Nelson)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Sato)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Nelson)
Women's Flyweight✓
Molly McCann won by KO/TKO (R3)
McCann 54%46% Carolina
TOSS-UPMarket: 59% (-5.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -87(favors Carolina)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors McCann)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors McCann)
Lightweight✓
Ilia Topuria won by KO/TKO (R2)
Topuria 86%14% Herbert
STRONGMarket: 82% (+3.5% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +357(favors Topuria)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Topuria)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Topuria)
Featherweight✗
Makwan Amirkhani won by Submission (R1)
Amirkhani 30%70% Grundy
CONFIDENTMarket: 29% (+1.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -49(favors Grundy)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Grundy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Amirkhani)
Heavyweight✗
Sergei Pavlovich won by KO/TKO (R1)
Pavlovich 47%53% Abdurakhimov
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +51(favors Pavlovich)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Pavlovich)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Abdurakhimov)
Light Heavyweight✗
Paul Craig won by Submission (R1)
Craig 37%63% Krylov
LEANMarket: 34% (+2.7% edge)
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +137(favors Craig)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Craig)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Craig)
Bantamweight✓
Jack Shore won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Shore 63%37% Valiev
LEANMarket: 54% (+9.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +56(favors Shore)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Valiev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Shore)
Women's Strawweight✗
Elise Reed won by Decision - Split (R3)
Reed 26%74% McKenna
CONFIDENTMarket: 26% (+0.1% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -248(favors McKenna)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors McKenna)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors McKenna)
Flyweight✓
Muhammad Mokaev won by Submission (R1)
Mokaev 87%13% Durden
STRONGMarket: 82% (+5.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +9(favors Mokaev)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Durden)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.0(favors Durden)