UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Tom Aspinall (8-1) taking on Alexander Volkov (12-5). Volkov is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Aspinall is rated at 1917 — 163 points above Volkov's 1754. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Aspinall rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Aspinall is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Volkov brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Aspinall the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aspinall throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Aspinall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Aspinall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tom Aspinall over Alexander Volkov.** The model gives Aspinall a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Aspinall at 54% implied while our model sees 60% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Arnold Allen (11-2) taking on Dan Hooker (14-9). Hooker is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Allen at 1468, Hooker at 1450. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooker throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hooker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Allen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Arnold Allen over Dan Hooker.** We're leaning Allen here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Paddy Pimblett (7-0) taking on Kazula Vargas (1-2). Pimblett is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Pimblett is rated at 1568 — 640 points above Vargas's 928. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pimblett rides a 7-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pimblett throws significantly more leather — a 6.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Vargas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Vargas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paddy Pimblett over Kazula Vargas.** We're leaning Pimblett here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Gunnar Nelson (10-5) taking on Takashi Sato (2-4).

Nelson is rated at 1310 — 456 points above Sato's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Nelson's wrestler game against Sato's striker approach. Nelson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Sato brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sato throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Sato has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gunnar Nelson over Takashi Sato.** The model is firm on this one: Nelson at 86%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Molly McCann (7-6) taking on Luana Carolina (6-3). Carolina is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Carolina is rated at 1036 — 202 points above McCann's 834. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Carolina has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is McCann's all-rounder game against Carolina's striker approach. McCann is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Carolina brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McCann throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. McCann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. McCann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Molly McCann over Luana Carolina.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward McCann at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 59% for McCann, but our model sees only 54%. That 5-point gap favoring Carolina is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Ilia Topuria (8-0) taking on Jai Herbert (3-4-1). Herbert is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Topuria is rated at 2094 — 1079 points above Herbert's 1014. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Topuria rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Topuria is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Herbert brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Topuria the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Topuria throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Topuria is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Topuria has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ilia Topuria over Jai Herbert.** The model is firm on this one: Topuria at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Topuria at 82% implied while our model sees 86% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Makwan Amirkhani (7-6) taking on Mike Grundy (1-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Amirkhani.

Amirkhani carries a modest Elo edge (965 to 897), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grundy throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Amirkhani is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Grundy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mike Grundy over Makwan Amirkhani.** We're leaning Grundy here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Sergei Pavlovich (7-3) taking on Shamil Abdurakhimov (5-5). Pavlovich will look to use a 8-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pavlovich is rated at 1663 — 645 points above Abdurakhimov's 1018. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pavlovich throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Abdurakhimov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Abdurakhimov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Shamil Abdurakhimov over Sergei Pavlovich.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Abdurakhimov at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Paul Craig (9-9-1) taking on Nikita Krylov (11-9).

Krylov is rated at 1400 — 355 points above Craig's 1045. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Craig is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Krylov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Krylov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Craig throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Craig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Craig has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nikita Krylov over Paul Craig.** The model gives Krylov a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jack Shore (6-2) taking on Timur Valiev (2-0). Shore is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Valiev carries a modest Elo edge (1105 to 1070), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Valiev throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Shore is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Shore has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jack Shore over Timur Valiev.** The model gives Shore a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Shore at 54% implied while our model sees 63% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Elise Reed (4-4) taking on Cory McKenna (3-2). Reed will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Reed at 933, McKenna at 929. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Reed's striker game against McKenna's wrestler approach. Reed brings a versatile approach, while McKenna looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McKenna throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. McKenna is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Reed has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cory McKenna over Elise Reed.** We're leaning McKenna here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Muhammad Mokaev (6-0) taking on Cody Durden (6-6-1). Mokaev will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Mokaev is rated at 1480 — 634 points above Durden's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mokaev rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Mokaev's wrestler game against Durden's knockout artist approach. Mokaev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Durden is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Durden throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Durden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Mokaev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Muhammad Mokaev over Cody Durden.** The model is firm on this one: Mokaev at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Mokaev at 82% implied while our model sees 87% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.