UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev
Saturday, March 12, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·14 fights
Model: 8/14(57%)
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Main Card
Light HeavyweightHIT
Magomed Ankalaev won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Ankalaev 93%7% Santos
Over/UnderOver 66%
Under 34%Over 66%
STRONGMarket: 84% (+8.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +85(favors Ankalaev)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Ankalaev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Ankalaev)
BantamweightHIT
Song Yadong won by KO/TKO (R1)
Yadong 75%25% Moraes
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +219(favors Yadong)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Yadong)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Moraes)
FeatherweightHIT
Sodiq Yusuff won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Yusuff 70%30% Caceres
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
CONFIDENTMarket: 71% (-0.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: +213(favors Yusuff)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Caceres)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Caceres)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Khalil Rountree Jr. won by KO/TKO (R2)
Jr. 49%51% Roberson
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
TOSS-UPMarket: 43% (+6.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +3(favors Jr.)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Jr.)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Roberson)
LightweightMISS
Drew Dober won by KO/TKO (R1)
Dober 34%66% McKinney
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
CONFIDENTMarket: 59% (-25.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: -56(favors McKinney)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Dober)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Dober)
MiddleweightHIT
Alex Pereira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pereira 80%20% Silva
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
STRONGMarket: 65% (+15.0% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -199(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.7(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Silva)
Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Matthew Semelsberger won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Semelsberger 63%37% Fletcher
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
LEANMarket: 64% (-0.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +269(favors Semelsberger)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.2(favors Semelsberger)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Semelsberger)
Women's FlyweightMISS
JJ Aldrich won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aldrich 45%55% Robertson
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEANMarket: 47% (-2.2% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -5(favors Robertson)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Aldrich)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Robertson)
BantamweightHIT
Javid Basharat won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Basharat 52%48% Jones
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UPMarket: 62% (-10.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -40(favors Jones)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Jones)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Jones)
FeatherweightMISS
Damon Jackson won by Submission (R2)
Jackson 37%63% Kirk
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
LEANMarket: 54% (-17.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -102(favors Kirk)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Jackson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Jackson)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Miranda Maverick won by Submission (R2)
Maverick 71%29% Mazo
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
CONFIDENTMarket: 76% (-4.2% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +77(favors Maverick)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors Mazo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Maverick)
MiddleweightHIT
Cody Brundage won by Submission (R1)
Brundage 61%39% Lungiambula
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
LEANMarket: 44% (+17.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -44(favors Lungiambula)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Lungiambula)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Lungiambula)
BantamweightMISS
Guido Cannetti won by KO/TKO (R1)
Cannetti 46%54% Moutinho
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+5.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -158(favors Moutinho)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Moutinho)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Cannetti)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Azamat Murzakanov won by KO/TKO (R3)
Murzakanov 49%51% Nchukwi
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
TOSS-UPMarket: 65% (-16.1% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -58(favors Nchukwi)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.5(favors Nchukwi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Nchukwi)