UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev
Saturday, March 12, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 10/14Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightHIT
Magomed Ankalaev won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Ankalaev 93%7% Santos
STRONGMarket: 84% (+8.5% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +57(favors Ankalaev)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Ankalaev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Ankalaev)
BantamweightHIT
Song Yadong won by KO/TKO (R1)
Yadong 70%30% Moraes
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +234(favors Yadong)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Yadong)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Moraes)
FeatherweightHIT
Sodiq Yusuff won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Yusuff 72%28% Caceres
CONFIDENTMarket: 71% (+0.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +15(favors Yusuff)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Caceres)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Caceres)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Khalil Rountree Jr. won by KO/TKO (R2)
Jr. 48%52% Roberson
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +14(favors Jr.)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Jr.)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Roberson)
LightweightMISS
Drew Dober won by KO/TKO (R1)
Dober 21%79% McKinney
STRONGMarket: 59% (-37.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +10(favors Dober)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Dober)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Dober)
MiddleweightHIT
Alex Pereira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pereira 72%28% Silva
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+6.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -165(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.7(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Silva)
WelterweightHIT
Matthew Semelsberger won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Semelsberger 73%27% Fletcher
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +198(favors Semelsberger)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.2(favors Semelsberger)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Semelsberger)
Women's FlyweightHIT
JJ Aldrich won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aldrich 51%49% Robertson
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -29(favors Robertson)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Aldrich)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Robertson)
BantamweightHIT
Javid Basharat won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Basharat 55%45% Jones
TOSS-UPMarket: 62% (-7.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -25(favors Jones)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Jones)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Jones)
FeatherweightMISS
Damon Jackson won by Submission (R2)
Jackson 36%64% Kirk
LEANMarket: 54% (-17.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -49(favors Kirk)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Jackson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Jackson)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Miranda Maverick won by Submission (R2)
Maverick 82%18% Mazo
STRONGMarket: 76% (+6.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +142(favors Maverick)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors Mazo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Maverick)
MiddleweightHIT
Cody Brundage won by Submission (R1)
Brundage 61%39% Lungiambula
LEANMarket: 44% (+17.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -29(favors Lungiambula)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Lungiambula)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Lungiambula)
BantamweightHIT
Guido Cannetti won by KO/TKO (R1)
Cannetti 52%48% Moutinho
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+11.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -173(favors Moutinho)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Moutinho)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Cannetti)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Azamat Murzakanov won by KO/TKO (R3)
Murzakanov 47%53% Nchukwi
TOSS-UPMarket: 65% (-17.5% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -39(favors Nchukwi)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.5(favors Nchukwi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Nchukwi)