UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Magomed Ankalaev (12-2-1) taking on Thiago Santos (14-10).

Ankalaev is rated at 1890 — 464 points above Santos's 1426. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ankalaev rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ankalaev throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Ankalaev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Ankalaev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Magomed Ankalaev over Thiago Santos. The model is firm on this one: Ankalaev at 93%. Notably, the betting market has Ankalaev at 84% implied while our model sees 93% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Song Yadong (11-4-1) taking on Marlon Moraes (5-6).

Yadong is rated at 1634 — 380 points above Moraes's 1254. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yadong throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Moraes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Yadong has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Song Yadong over Marlon Moraes. We're leaning Yadong here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Sodiq Yusuff (6-4) taking on Alex Caceres (16-13).

Caceres carries a modest Elo edge (1264 to 1221), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Yusuff is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Caceres is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 55% win rate against all-rounders, giving Caceres the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Caceres throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Caceres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Caceres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sodiq Yusuff over Alex Caceres. We're leaning Yusuff here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Khalil Rountree Jr. (10-7) taking on Karl Roberson (4-6).

Jr. is rated at 1559 — 689 points above Roberson's 870. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jr.'s striker game against Roberson's all-rounder approach. Jr. brings a versatile approach, while Roberson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jr. throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Jr. has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Karl Roberson over Khalil Rountree Jr.. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Roberson at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Jr. at 43% implied while our model sees 49% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Drew Dober (15-11) taking on Terrance McKinney (8-5). McKinney is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Dober at 1301, McKinney at 1302. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Dober is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while McKinney is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 55% win rate against all-rounders, giving McKinney the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dober throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Dober is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Dober has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Terrance McKinney over Drew Dober. We're leaning McKinney here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 59% for Dober, but our model sees only 34%. That 25-point gap favoring McKinney is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Alex Pereira (10-2) taking on Bruno Silva (4-7). Pereira is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Pereira is rated at 2083 — 1197 points above Silva's 886. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pereira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Pereira over Bruno Silva. The model is firm on this one: Pereira at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Pereira at 65% implied while our model sees 80% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Matthew Semelsberger (5-6) taking on AJ Fletcher (1-3). Semelsberger is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Fletcher carries a modest Elo edge (977 to 903), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Semelsberger throws significantly more leather — a 6.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Semelsberger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Fletcher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matthew Semelsberger over AJ Fletcher. The model gives Semelsberger a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features JJ Aldrich (10-6) taking on Gillian Robertson (14-6). Aldrich will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Robertson is rated at 1422 — 309 points above Aldrich's 1113. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Robertson has won 4 straight.

Stylistically this is Aldrich's striker game against Robertson's wrestler approach. Aldrich brings a versatile approach, while Robertson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldrich throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Robertson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Aldrich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gillian Robertson over JJ Aldrich. The model gives Robertson a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Javid Basharat (4-2) taking on Trevin Jones (1-4).

Basharat is rated at 1156 — 306 points above Jones's 850. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Basharat has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Javid Basharat over Trevin Jones. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Basharat at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 62% for Basharat, but our model sees only 52%. That 10-point gap favoring Jones is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Damon Jackson (6-6-1) taking on Kamuela Kirk (1-2). Kirk will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jackson is rated at 1165 — 350 points above Kirk's 815. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Kirk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kamuela Kirk over Damon Jackson. The model gives Kirk a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 54% for Jackson, but our model sees only 37%. That 17-point gap favoring Kirk is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Miranda Maverick (8-4) taking on Sabina Mazo (3-4). Mazo is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Maverick is rated at 1318 — 498 points above Mazo's 820. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Maverick rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Maverick looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Mazo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Maverick the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mazo throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Maverick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Maverick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Miranda Maverick over Sabina Mazo. We're leaning Maverick here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 76% for Maverick, but our model sees only 71%. That 4-point gap favoring Mazo is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Cody Brundage (5-8) taking on Dalcha Lungiambula (2-5). Lungiambula will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Brundage at 875 versus Lungiambula at 732. That 143-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Brundage's all-rounder game against Lungiambula's striker approach. Brundage is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lungiambula brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lungiambula throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lungiambula is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Brundage has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody Brundage over Dalcha Lungiambula. The model gives Brundage a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Brundage at 44% implied while our model sees 61% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Guido Cannetti (4-6) taking on Kris Moutinho (0-4).

Cannetti is rated at 1026 — 405 points above Moutinho's 620. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moutinho throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Cannetti is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Cannetti has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kris Moutinho over Guido Cannetti. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Moutinho at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Cannetti at 41% implied while our model sees 46% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Azamat Murzakanov (6-0) taking on Tafon Nchukwi (2-4). Nchukwi is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Murzakanov is rated at 1721 — 1052 points above Nchukwi's 670. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Murzakanov rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nchukwi throws significantly more leather — a 6.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Nchukwi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Murzakanov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tafon Nchukwi over Azamat Murzakanov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nchukwi at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 65% for Murzakanov, but our model sees only 49%. That 16-point gap favoring Nchukwi is worth watching.