UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
Saturday, March 5, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 7/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightHIT
Colby Covington won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Covington 80%20% Masvidal
STRONGMarket: 74% (+6.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +64(favors Covington)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Covington)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Covington)
Catch WeightMISS
Rafael Dos Anjos won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Anjos 27%73% Moicano
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +186(favors Anjos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Moicano)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.1(favors Moicano)
FeatherweightHIT
Bryce Mitchell won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mitchell 64%36% Barboza
LEANMarket: 61% (+3.2% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +46(favors Mitchell)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Barboza)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Mitchell)
WelterweightHIT
Kevin Holland won by KO/TKO (R2)
Holland 88%12% Oliveira
STRONGMarket: 81% (+7.3% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +406(favors Holland)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Holland)
HeavyweightHIT
Serghei Spivac won by KO/TKO (R1)
Spivac 71%29% Hardy
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +104(favors Spivac)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Hardy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Spivac)
LightweightHIT
Jalin Turner won by KO/TKO (R2)
Turner 58%42% Mullarkey
LEANMarket: 59% (-1.5% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +66(favors Turner)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Turner)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.7(favors Mullarkey)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Marina Rodriguez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Rodriguez 49%51% Xiaonan
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +251(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Xiaonan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Xiaonan)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Nicolae Negumereanu won by Decision - Split (R3)
Negumereanu 37%63% Nzechukwu
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -98(favors Nzechukwu)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Nzechukwu)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Negumereanu)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Maryna Moroz won by Submission (R2)
Moroz 43%57% Agapova
LEANMarket: 39% (+4.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +132(favors Moroz)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Agapova)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Agapova)
FeatherweightHIT
Umar Nurmagomedov won by Submission (R1)
Nurmagomedov 85%15% Kelleher
STRONGMarket: 88% (-3.9% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -116(favors Kelleher)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Nurmagomedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.2(favors Nurmagomedov)
FlyweightMISS
Tim Elliott won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Elliott 32%68% Ulanbekov
CONFIDENTMarket: 32% (-0.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -119(favors Ulanbekov)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Elliott)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Ulanbekov)
LightweightMISS
Ludovit Klein won by Decision - Split (R3)
Klein 49%51% Smith
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+7.1% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -69(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Klein)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Dustin Jacoby won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jacoby 65%35% Oleksiejczuk
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+0.0% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +32(favors Jacoby)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Jacoby)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Jacoby)