UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
Saturday, March 5, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·13 fights
Model: 8/13(62%)
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Main Card
WelterweightHIT
Colby Covington won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Covington 80%20% Masvidal
Over/UnderOver 69%
Under 31%Over 69%
STRONGMarket: 74% (+6.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +132(favors Covington)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Covington)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Covington)
Catch WeightMISS
Rafael Dos Anjos won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Anjos 40%60% Moicano
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEANMarket: 62% (-22.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +256(favors Anjos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Moicano)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.1(favors Moicano)
FeatherweightHIT
Bryce Mitchell won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mitchell 68%32% Barboza
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
CONFIDENTMarket: 61% (+6.8% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +21(favors Mitchell)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Barboza)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Mitchell)
WelterweightHIT
Kevin Holland won by KO/TKO (R2)
Holland 87%13% Oliveira
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONGMarket: 81% (+6.0% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +323(favors Holland)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Holland)
HeavyweightHIT
Serghei Spivac won by KO/TKO (R1)
Spivac 72%28% Hardy
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
CONFIDENTMarket: 62% (+10.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +121(favors Spivac)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Hardy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Spivac)
Prelims
LightweightHIT
Jalin Turner won by KO/TKO (R2)
Turner 56%44% Mullarkey
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 59% (-3.3% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: -6(favors Mullarkey)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Turner)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.7(favors Mullarkey)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Marina Rodriguez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Rodriguez 64%36% Xiaonan
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
LEANMarket: 71% (-7.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +275(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Xiaonan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Xiaonan)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Nicolae Negumereanu won by Decision - Split (R3)
Negumereanu 38%62% Nzechukwu
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 45% (-6.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -229(favors Nzechukwu)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Nzechukwu)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Negumereanu)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Maryna Moroz won by Submission (R2)
Moroz 50%50% Agapova
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
TOSS-UPMarket: 39% (+11.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: +171(favors Moroz)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Agapova)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Agapova)
Early Prelims
FeatherweightHIT
Umar Nurmagomedov won by Submission (R1)
Nurmagomedov 91%9% Kelleher
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 88% (+2.1% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -75(favors Kelleher)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Nurmagomedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.2(favors Nurmagomedov)
FlyweightMISS
Tim Elliott won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Elliott 25%75% Ulanbekov
Over/UnderOver 66%
Under 34%Over 66%
CONFIDENTMarket: 32% (-7.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -127(favors Ulanbekov)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Elliott)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Ulanbekov)
LightweightMISS
Ludovit Klein won by Decision - Split (R3)
Klein 44%56% Smith
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEANMarket: 42% (+1.5% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -193(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Klein)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Dustin Jacoby won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jacoby 68%32% Oleksiejczuk
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+3.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +73(favors Jacoby)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Jacoby)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Jacoby)