UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Colby Covington (12-4) taking on Jorge Masvidal (12-9).

Covington carries a modest Elo edge (1630 to 1579), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Covington's wrestler game against Masvidal's knockout artist approach. Covington looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Masvidal is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Covington throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Covington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Covington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Colby Covington over Jorge Masvidal. The model is firm on this one: Covington at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Covington at 74% implied while our model sees 80% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Catch Weight championship matchup features Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14) taking on Renato Moicano (12-6). Moicano is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Moicano is rated at 1542 — 260 points above Anjos's 1282. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Anjos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Moicano looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Moicano the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moicano throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Moicano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.1 more per 15 minutes. Anjos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renato Moicano over Rafael Dos Anjos. We're leaning Moicano here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Bryce Mitchell (8-3) taking on Edson Barboza (18-13). Barboza will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Mitchell is rated at 1355 — 213 points above Barboza's 1142. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Mitchell looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Barboza is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Mitchell the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barboza throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Mitchell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Mitchell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bryce Mitchell over Edson Barboza. The model gives Mitchell a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Mitchell at 61% implied while our model sees 64% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Kevin Holland (15-11) taking on Alex Oliveira (11-9). Holland is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Holland is rated at 1257 — 323 points above Oliveira's 934. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Holland's knockout artist game against Oliveira's all-rounder approach. Holland is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Oliveira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Holland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Holland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Holland over Alex Oliveira. The model is firm on this one: Holland at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Holland at 81% implied while our model sees 88% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Serghei Spivac (8-6) taking on Greg Hardy (4-4). Hardy is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Spivac is rated at 1355 — 397 points above Hardy's 958. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Spivac's all-rounder game against Hardy's striker approach. Spivac is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hardy brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hardy throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Spivac is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Spivac has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Serghei Spivac over Greg Hardy. We're leaning Spivac here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Jalin Turner (7-6) taking on Jamie Mullarkey (6-6). Turner is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Turner is rated at 1393 — 446 points above Mullarkey's 947. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Turner's submission artist game against Mullarkey's striker approach. Turner is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Mullarkey brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Turner throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Mullarkey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Turner has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jalin Turner over Jamie Mullarkey. The model gives Turner a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Marina Rodriguez (7-5-2) taking on Yan Xiaonan (9-3).

Xiaonan is rated at 1412 — 353 points above Rodriguez's 1059. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rodriguez's all-rounder game against Xiaonan's striker approach. Rodriguez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Xiaonan brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Xiaonan throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Xiaonan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yan Xiaonan over Marina Rodriguez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Xiaonan at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Nicolae Negumereanu (4-1) taking on Kennedy Nzechukwu (8-6). Nzechukwu is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Nzechukwu carries a modest Elo edge (1071 to 1019), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Negumereanu rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nzechukwu throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Negumereanu is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Nzechukwu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kennedy Nzechukwu over Nicolae Negumereanu. The model gives Nzechukwu a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Maryna Moroz (6-5) taking on Mariya Agapova (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Moroz at 952 versus Agapova at 837. That 115-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Moroz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Agapova is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Agapova the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Agapova throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Agapova is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Agapova has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mariya Agapova over Maryna Moroz. The model gives Agapova a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Moroz at 39% implied while our model sees 43% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Umar Nurmagomedov (7-1) taking on Brian Kelleher (8-8). Nurmagomedov is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Nurmagomedov is rated at 1701 — 935 points above Kelleher's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Nurmagomedov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Kelleher is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nurmagomedov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nurmagomedov throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurmagomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.2 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov over Brian Kelleher. The model is firm on this one: Nurmagomedov at 85%. The market implies 88% for Nurmagomedov, but our model sees only 85%. That 4-point gap favoring Kelleher is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Tim Elliott (9-11) taking on Tagir Ulanbekov (6-1). Ulanbekov will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Elliott at 1241, Ulanbekov at 1261. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Ulanbekov has won 4 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elliott throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ulanbekov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Ulanbekov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tagir Ulanbekov over Tim Elliott. We're leaning Ulanbekov here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Ludovit Klein (7-3-1) taking on Devonte Smith (3-2). Smith is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Klein is rated at 1364 — 494 points above Smith's 869. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Klein brings a versatile approach, while Smith is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Smith the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Klein is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Devonte Smith over Ludovit Klein. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Smith at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Klein at 42% implied while our model sees 49% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dustin Jacoby (9-6-1) taking on Michal Oleksiejczuk (9-7). Jacoby is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Jacoby at 1374 versus Oleksiejczuk at 1268. That 106-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jacoby throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Jacoby is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Oleksiejczuk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Jacoby over Michal Oleksiejczuk. We're leaning Jacoby here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.