UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green
Saturday, February 26, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 7/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Catch Weight✓
Islam Makhachev won by KO/TKO (R1)
Makhachev 86%14% Green
STRONGMarket: 87% (-0.7% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +315(favors Makhachev)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.9(favors Green)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Makhachev)
Middleweight✓
Wellington Turman won by Submission (R2)
Turman 59%41% Cirkunov
LEANMarket: 43% (+15.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -179(favors Cirkunov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Turman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Cirkunov)
Women's Flyweight✗
Priscila Cachoeira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cachoeira 34%66% Kim
CONFIDENTMarket: 35% (-0.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +70(favors Cachoeira)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Kim)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Kim)
Lightweight✓
Arman Tsarukyan won by KO/TKO (R2)
Tsarukyan 79%21% Alvarez
STRONGMarket: 68% (+11.5% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -11(favors Alvarez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Alvarez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Tsarukyan)
Middleweight✗
Armen Petrosyan won by Decision - Split (R3)
Petrosyan 30%70% Rodrigues
CONFIDENTMarket: 39% (-9.1% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -213(favors Rodrigues)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.0(favors Rodrigues)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.2(favors Rodrigues)
Lightweight✗
Ignacio Bahamondes won by Submission (R3)
Bahamondes 41%59% Rongzhu
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +87(favors Bahamondes)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Bahamondes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.6(favors Rongzhu)
Women's Featherweight✓
Josiane Nunes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nunes 73%27% Pascual
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (+6.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +180(favors Nunes)
→Striking volume advantage: +10.6(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Pascual)
Lightweight✗
Terrance McKinney won by Submission (R1)
McKinney 33%67% Ziam
CONFIDENTMarket: 46% (-13.1% edge)
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +39(favors McKinney)
→Striking volume advantage: +32.2(favors McKinney)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Ziam)
Featherweight✓
Jonathan Martinez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Martinez 70%30% Perez
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (-1.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -66(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Martinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Perez)
Welterweight✓
Ramiz Brahimaj won by Submission (R1)
Brahimaj 86%14% Gillmore
STRONGMarket: 77% (+8.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +54(favors Brahimaj)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Brahimaj)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Brahimaj)
Flyweight✓
Carlos Hernandez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Hernandez 55%45% Altamirano
TOSS-UPMarket: 56% (-1.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -0(favors Altamirano)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Altamirano)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Altamirano)