UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green: Predictions & Analysis

The Catch Weight matchup features Islam Makhachev (16-1) taking on King Green (13-12-1).

Makhachev is rated at 2210 — 1034 points above Green's 1176. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Makhachev rides a 15-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Makhachev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Green is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Makhachev the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 5.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Makhachev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Makhachev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Islam Makhachev over King Green.** The model is firm on this one: Makhachev at 86%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Wellington Turman (3-5) taking on Misha Cirkunov (6-6). Cirkunov is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Turman at 866, Cirkunov at 867. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Turman throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Cirkunov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Cirkunov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Wellington Turman over Misha Cirkunov.** The model gives Turman a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Turman at 43% implied while our model sees 59% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Priscila Cachoeira (5-7) taking on Ji Yeon Kim (3-6). Kim will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

Cachoeira is rated at 903 — 180 points above Kim's 723. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kim throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Kim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ji Yeon Kim over Priscila Cachoeira.** We're leaning Kim here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Arman Tsarukyan (9-2) taking on Joel Alvarez (7-2). Alvarez is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Tsarukyan is rated at 1836 — 272 points above Alvarez's 1564. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Tsarukyan rides a 4-fight win streak into this one, while Alvarez has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Tsarukyan's striker game against Alvarez's wrestler approach. Tsarukyan brings a versatile approach, while Alvarez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvarez throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Tsarukyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Tsarukyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Arman Tsarukyan over Joel Alvarez.** The model is firm on this one: Tsarukyan at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Tsarukyan at 68% implied while our model sees 79% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Armen Petrosyan (3-3) taking on Gregory Rodrigues (8-3). Rodrigues will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Rodrigues is rated at 1515 — 605 points above Petrosyan's 910. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodrigues throws significantly more leather — a 6.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodrigues is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Petrosyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gregory Rodrigues over Armen Petrosyan.** We're leaning Rodrigues here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 39% for Petrosyan, but our model sees only 30%. That 9-point gap favoring Rodrigues is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Ignacio Bahamondes (6-2) taking on Rongzhu (2-3). Bahamondes is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Bahamondes is rated at 1386 — 328 points above Rongzhu's 1058. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bahamondes rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Bahamondes's all-rounder game against Rongzhu's striker approach. Bahamondes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Rongzhu brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bahamondes throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Rongzhu is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.6 more per 15 minutes. Bahamondes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rongzhu over Ignacio Bahamondes.** The model gives Rongzhu a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Featherweight matchup features Josiane Nunes (3-2) taking on Ramona Pascual (0-2). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Pascual.

There's a real Elo separation here: Nunes at 866 versus Pascual at 784. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 10.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pascual is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pascual has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Josiane Nunes over Ramona Pascual.** We're leaning Nunes here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Nunes at 67% implied while our model sees 73% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Terrance McKinney (7-4) taking on Fares Ziam (7-2). Ziam is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Ziam is rated at 1556 — 446 points above McKinney's 1110. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ziam has won 5 straight.

The style clash matters here: McKinney is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Ziam looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Ziam the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. McKinney throws significantly more leather — a 32.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ziam is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. McKinney has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Fares Ziam over Terrance McKinney.** We're leaning Ziam here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 46% for McKinney, but our model sees only 33%. That 13-point gap favoring Ziam is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Jonathan Martinez (10-4) taking on Alejandro Perez (8-3-1). Martinez is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Martinez is rated at 1343 — 261 points above Perez's 1082. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Martinez's striker game against Perez's all-rounder approach. Martinez brings a versatile approach, while Perez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martinez throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jonathan Martinez over Alejandro Perez.** We're leaning Martinez here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Ramiz Brahimaj (5-3) taking on Micheal Gillmore (0-1).

Brahimaj is rated at 1144 — 365 points above Gillmore's 779. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Brahimaj rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brahimaj throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Brahimaj is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Brahimaj has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ramiz Brahimaj over Micheal Gillmore.** The model is firm on this one: Brahimaj at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Brahimaj at 77% implied while our model sees 86% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Carlos Hernandez (3-3) taking on Victor Altamirano (2-3). Altamirano will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Hernandez carries a modest Elo edge (913 to 837), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Altamirano throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Altamirano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Altamirano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Carlos Hernandez over Victor Altamirano.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hernandez at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.