UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland
Saturday, February 5, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Middleweight✓
Sean Strickland won by Decision - Split (R5)
Strickland 72%28% Hermansson
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+3.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +138(favors Strickland)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Strickland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Hermansson)
Middleweight✓
Nick Maximov won by Decision - Split (R3)
Maximov 55%45% Soriano
LEANMarket: 37% (+18.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -62(favors Soriano)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.4(favors Soriano)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Maximov)
Welterweight✓
Shavkat Rakhmonov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Rakhmonov 77%23% Harris
STRONGMarket: 70% (+7.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +95(favors Rakhmonov)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Harris)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Rakhmonov)
Light Heavyweight✓
Brendan Allen won by Submission (R2)
Allen 83%17% Alvey
STRONGMarket: 77% (+5.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +397(favors Allen)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Allen)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Allen)
Middleweight✗
Bryan Battle won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Battle 48%52% Gore
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+6.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +111(favors Battle)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.3(favors Battle)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Battle)
Featherweight✓
Julian Erosa won by Decision - Split (R3)
Erosa 60%40% Peterson
LEANMarket: 74% (-13.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +23(favors Erosa)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Erosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Peterson)
Bantamweight✗
John Castaneda won by Submission (R3)
Castaneda 21%79% Johns
STRONGMarket: 35% (-14.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -34(favors Johns)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Castaneda)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Johns)
Featherweight✓
Hakeem Dawodu won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dawodu 52%48% Trizano
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +90(favors Dawodu)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Dawodu)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Trizano)
Middleweight✗
Chidi Njokuani won by KO/TKO (R1)
Njokuani 38%62% Barriault
LEANMarket: 50% (-11.5% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -99(favors Barriault)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.1(favors Barriault)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Barriault)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Alexis Davis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Davis 55%45% Stoliarenko
TOSS-UPMarket: 70% (-15.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +179(favors Davis)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Davis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Davis)
Light Heavyweight✗
Jailton Almeida won by KO/TKO (R1)
Almeida 46%54% Marques
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +10(favors Almeida)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Marques)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.3(favors Marques)
Welterweight✓
Phil Rowe won by KO/TKO (R2)
Rowe 63%37% Witt
LEANMarket: 53% (+10.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +23(favors Rowe)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Rowe)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.2(favors Witt)
Flyweight✗
Malcolm Gordon won by KO/TKO (R1)
Gordon 29%71% Bondar
CONFIDENTMarket: 28% (+0.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -65(favors Bondar)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Gordon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Gordon)