UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland
Saturday, February 5, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·13 fights
Model: 9/13(69%)
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Main Card
MiddleweightHIT
Sean Strickland won by Decision - Split (R5)
Strickland 79%21% Hermansson
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
STRONGMarket: 68% (+10.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +40(favors Strickland)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Strickland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Hermansson)
MiddleweightHIT
Nick Maximov won by Decision - Split (R3)
Maximov 51%49% Soriano
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
TOSS-UPMarket: 37% (+14.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -48(favors Soriano)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.4(favors Soriano)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Maximov)
WelterweightHIT
Shavkat Rakhmonov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Rakhmonov 77%23% Harris
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 70% (+6.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +157(favors Rakhmonov)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Harris)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Rakhmonov)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Brendan Allen won by Submission (R2)
Allen 80%20% Alvey
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
STRONGMarket: 77% (+2.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +349(favors Allen)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Allen)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Allen)
MiddleweightHIT
Bryan Battle won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Battle 53%47% Gore
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+11.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: +166(favors Battle)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.3(favors Battle)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Battle)
FeatherweightHIT
Julian Erosa won by Decision - Split (R3)
Erosa 64%36% Peterson
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 74% (-9.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +63(favors Erosa)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Erosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Peterson)
Prelims
BantamweightMISS
John Castaneda won by Submission (R3)
Castaneda 21%79% Johns
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
STRONGMarket: 35% (-13.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +23(favors Castaneda)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Castaneda)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Johns)
FeatherweightHIT
Hakeem Dawodu won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dawodu 54%46% Trizano
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +97(favors Dawodu)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Dawodu)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Trizano)
MiddleweightMISS
Chidi Njokuani won by KO/TKO (R1)
Njokuani 44%56% Barriault
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
LEANMarket: 50% (-6.0% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -114(favors Barriault)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.1(favors Barriault)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Barriault)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Alexis Davis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Davis 65%35% Stoliarenko
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (-5.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: +274(favors Davis)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Davis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Davis)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Jailton Almeida won by KO/TKO (R1)
Almeida 38%62% Marques
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +13(favors Almeida)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Marques)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.3(favors Marques)
WelterweightHIT
Phil Rowe won by KO/TKO (R2)
Rowe 52%48% Witt
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
TOSS-UPMarket: 53% (-1.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -3(favors Witt)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Rowe)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.2(favors Witt)
FlyweightMISS
Malcolm Gordon won by KO/TKO (R1)
Gordon 25%75% Bondar
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
CONFIDENTMarket: 28% (-2.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -35(favors Bondar)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Gordon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Gordon)