UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Sean Strickland (16-7) taking on Jack Hermansson (11-7).

Strickland is rated at 1813 — 696 points above Hermansson's 1117. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Strickland throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Hermansson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Strickland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sean Strickland over Jack Hermansson.** We're leaning Strickland here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Strickland at 68% implied while our model sees 72% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Nick Maximov (2-1) taking on Punahele Soriano (6-4). Maximov will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Soriano is rated at 1288 — 329 points above Maximov's 959. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Soriano has won 3 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soriano throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Maximov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Soriano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nick Maximov over Punahele Soriano.** The model gives Maximov a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Maximov at 37% implied while our model sees 55% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Shavkat Rakhmonov (6-0) taking on Carlston Harris (4-2).

Rakhmonov is rated at 1831 — 734 points above Harris's 1097. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Rakhmonov rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Harris throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Rakhmonov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Shavkat Rakhmonov over Carlston Harris.** The model is firm on this one: Rakhmonov at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Rakhmonov at 70% implied while our model sees 77% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Brendan Allen (13-4) taking on Sam Alvey (10-12-1).

Allen is rated at 1696 — 962 points above Alvey's 734. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Allen throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Allen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Alvey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brendan Allen over Sam Alvey.** The model is firm on this one: Allen at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Allen at 77% implied while our model sees 83% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Bryan Battle (6-1) taking on Tresean Gore (2-3).

Battle is rated at 1469 — 553 points above Gore's 916. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Battle is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gore is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gore the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Battle throws significantly more leather — a 6.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Battle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Gore has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tresean Gore over Bryan Battle.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gore at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Battle at 42% implied while our model sees 48% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Julian Erosa (9-7) taking on Steven Peterson (3-4). Erosa is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Erosa is rated at 1280 — 360 points above Peterson's 920. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Erosa rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Erosa throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Peterson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Peterson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Julian Erosa over Steven Peterson.** The model gives Erosa a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 74% for Erosa, but our model sees only 60%. That 14-point gap favoring Peterson is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features John Castaneda (4-3) taking on Miles Johns (6-4). Castaneda will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Castaneda carries a modest Elo edge (1117 to 1044), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Castaneda's all-rounder game against Johns's striker approach. Castaneda is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Johns brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Castaneda throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Johns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Johns has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Miles Johns over John Castaneda.** The model is firm on this one: Johns at 79%. The market implies 35% for Castaneda, but our model sees only 21%. That 14-point gap favoring Johns is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Hakeem Dawodu (6-3) taking on Michael Trizano (3-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Trizano.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Dawodu at 1090, Trizano at 1073. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Dawodu's striker game against Trizano's all-rounder approach. Dawodu brings a versatile approach, while Trizano is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dawodu throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Trizano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Dawodu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Hakeem Dawodu over Michael Trizano.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dawodu at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Chidi Njokuani (5-4) taking on Marc-Andre Barriault (6-9). Njokuani is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Njokuani at 1083 versus Barriault at 954. That 128-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barriault throws significantly more leather — a 6.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Barriault is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Njokuani has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marc-Andre Barriault over Chidi Njokuani.** The model gives Barriault a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 50% for Njokuani, but our model sees only 38%. That 12-point gap favoring Barriault is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Alexis Davis (7-6) taking on Julija Stoliarenko (2-6).

Davis is rated at 1030 — 187 points above Stoliarenko's 842. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Davis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Stoliarenko looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Stoliarenko the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alexis Davis over Julija Stoliarenko.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Davis at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 70% for Davis, but our model sees only 55%. That 16-point gap favoring Stoliarenko is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jailton Almeida (8-2) taking on Danilo Marques (2-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Marques.

Almeida is rated at 1428 — 561 points above Marques's 866. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marques throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Marques is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Almeida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Danilo Marques over Jailton Almeida.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Marques at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Phil Rowe (4-4) taking on Jason Witt (2-3). Rowe is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

Rowe is rated at 1041 — 218 points above Witt's 824. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Rowe is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Witt looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Witt the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rowe throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Witt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.2 more per 15 minutes. Rowe has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Phil Rowe over Jason Witt.** The model gives Rowe a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Rowe at 53% implied while our model sees 63% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Malcolm Gordon (2-4) taking on Denys Bondar (0-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Gordon at 749, Bondar at 738. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gordon throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Gordon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Bondar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Denys Bondar over Malcolm Gordon.** We're leaning Bondar here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.