UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
Saturday, December 4, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
BantamweightMISS
Jose Aldo won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Aldo 31%69% Font
CONFIDENTMarket: 44% (-13.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -23(favors Font)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Font)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Font)
LightweightHIT
Rafael Fiziev won by KO/TKO (R3)
Fiziev 55%45% Riddell
TOSS-UPMarket: 55% (-0.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +27(favors Fiziev)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Fiziev)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Riddell)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Jamahal Hill won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hill 63%37% Crute
LEAN
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: -73(favors Crute)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -9.7(favors Crute)
LightweightMISS
Clay Guida won by Submission (R2)
Guida 45%55% Santos
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -279(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Guida)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Guida)
MiddleweightMISS
Chris Curtis won by KO/TKO (R2)
Curtis 26%74% Allen
CONFIDENTMarket: 25% (+0.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -153(favors Allen)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Curtis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Allen)
WelterweightHIT
Alex Morono won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Morono 72%28% Gall
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (+2.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +223(favors Morono)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Morono)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Morono)
MiddleweightHIT
Dusko Todorovic won by KO/TKO (R1)
Todorovic 64%36% Pitolo
LEAN
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +75(favors Todorovic)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Todorovic)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Pitolo)
FlyweightHIT
Manel Kape won by KO/TKO (R1)
Kape 70%30% Zhumagulov
CONFIDENTMarket: 73% (-3.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +140(favors Kape)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Zhumagulov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Zhumagulov)
WelterweightHIT
Bryan Barberena won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barberena 50%50% Weeks
TOSS-UPMarket: 56% (-5.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -43(favors Weeks)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.8(favors Barberena)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Weeks)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Cheyanne Vlismas won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Vlismas 65%35% Martin
LEAN
→Elo gap: +192(favors Vlismas)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Vlismas)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Martin)
Light HeavyweightMISS
William Knight won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Knight 42%58% Menifield
LEANMarket: 40% (+2.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -111(favors Menifield)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Menifield)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Knight)
LightweightHIT
Claudio Puelles won by Submission (R3)
Puelles 63%37% Gruetzemacher
LEANMarket: 51% (+11.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +100(favors Puelles)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.2(favors Gruetzemacher)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Puelles)
BantamweightMISS
Vince Morales won by KO/TKO (R1)
Morales 47%53% Smolka
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -171(favors Smolka)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Smolka)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.7(favors Smolka)