UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Jose Aldo (14-8) taking on Rob Font (12-7).

Aldo carries a modest Elo edge (1420 to 1361), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Aldo's striker game against Font's all-rounder approach. Aldo brings a versatile approach, while Font is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Font throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Font is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Font has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rob Font over Jose Aldo. We're leaning Font here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 44% for Aldo, but our model sees only 31%. That 13-point gap favoring Font is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafael Fiziev (7-4) taking on Brad Riddell (4-2).

Fiziev is rated at 1312 — 224 points above Riddell's 1088. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fiziev throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Riddell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Riddell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Fiziev over Brad Riddell. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Fiziev at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jamahal Hill (6-3) taking on Jimmy Crute (5-4-2). Hill is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Hill is rated at 1396 — 245 points above Crute's 1151. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Hill's striker game against Crute's submission artist approach. Hill brings a versatile approach, while Crute is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Crute is far more active with takedowns, averaging 9.7 more per 15 minutes. Crute has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jamahal Hill over Jimmy Crute. The model gives Hill a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Clay Guida (18-18) taking on Leonardo Santos (7-2-1). Santos is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Santos at 1039 versus Guida at 926. That 114-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guida throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Guida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Leonardo Santos over Clay Guida. The model gives Santos a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Curtis (5-4) taking on Brendan Allen (13-4). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Allen.

Allen is rated at 1696 — 438 points above Curtis's 1258. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Curtis's striker game against Allen's all-rounder approach. Curtis brings a versatile approach, while Allen is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Curtis throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Allen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Allen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brendan Allen over Chris Curtis. We're leaning Allen here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Morono (13-9) taking on Mickey Gall (6-6). Gall is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Morono at 868 versus Gall at 760. That 108-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Morono is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gall looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gall the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morono throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Morono is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Morono has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Morono over Mickey Gall. We're leaning Morono here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Dusko Todorovic (3-6) taking on Maki Pitolo (1-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Todorovic.

Todorovic is rated at 871 — 176 points above Pitolo's 696. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Todorovic is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Pitolo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Todorovic the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Todorovic throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Pitolo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Pitolo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dusko Todorovic over Maki Pitolo. The model gives Todorovic a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Manel Kape (6-3) taking on Zhalgas Zhumagulov (1-5).

Kape is rated at 1586 — 823 points above Zhumagulov's 764. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Kape is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Zhumagulov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Zhumagulov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zhumagulov throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Zhumagulov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Zhumagulov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Manel Kape over Zhalgas Zhumagulov. We're leaning Kape here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 73% for Kape, but our model sees only 70%. That 4-point gap favoring Zhumagulov is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Bryan Barberena (9-9) taking on Darian Weeks (0-2).

Barberena is rated at 960 — 164 points above Weeks's 796. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barberena throws significantly more leather — a 5.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Weeks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Weeks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bryan Barberena over Darian Weeks. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Barberena at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 56% for Barberena, but our model sees only 50%. That 6-point gap favoring Weeks is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Cheyanne Vlismas (2-1) taking on Mallory Martin (1-2).

Vlismas is rated at 982 — 188 points above Martin's 794. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vlismas throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Martin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Vlismas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cheyanne Vlismas over Mallory Martin. The model gives Vlismas a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features William Knight (3-3) taking on Alonzo Menifield (10-5-1). Menifield is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Menifield is rated at 1207 — 369 points above Knight's 838. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Knight is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Menifield looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Menifield the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Menifield throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Knight is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Menifield has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alonzo Menifield over William Knight. The model gives Menifield a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Claudio Puelles (5-3) taking on Chris Gruetzemacher (3-3). Puelles is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Puelles carries a modest Elo edge (1040 to 1001), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Puelles's wrestler game against Gruetzemacher's striker approach. Puelles looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gruetzemacher brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gruetzemacher throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Puelles is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Gruetzemacher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Claudio Puelles over Chris Gruetzemacher. The model gives Puelles a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Puelles at 51% implied while our model sees 63% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Vince Morales (3-7) taking on Louis Smolka (8-8).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Morales at 852, Smolka at 874. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Morales's striker game against Smolka's all-rounder approach. Morales brings a versatile approach, while Smolka is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smolka throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Smolka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Morales has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Louis Smolka over Vince Morales. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Smolka at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.