UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
Saturday, August 23, 2025·Shanghai, Hebei, China
Model Record: 9/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light Heavyweight✗
Johnny Walker won by KO/TKO (R2)
Walker 30%70% Mingyang
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -41(favors Mingyang)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.7(favors Mingyang)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Walker)
Catch Weight✓
Aljamain Sterling won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Sterling 65%35% Ortega
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +45(favors Sterling)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Ortega)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.3(favors Sterling)
Heavyweight✓
Sergei Pavlovich won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pavlovich 62%38% Acosta
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +182(favors Pavlovich)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Acosta)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Pavlovich)
Flyweight✓
Sumudaerji won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sumudaerji 58%42% Borjas
LEAN
→Elo gap: +9(favors Sumudaerji)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Borjas)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Borjas)
Welterweight✓
Taiyilake Nueraji won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nueraji 54%46% Crosbie
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +190(favors Nueraji)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.3(favors Crosbie)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Crosbie)
Lightweight✓
Gauge Young won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Young 53%47% Maheshate
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +15(favors Young)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Young)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Maheshate)
Flyweight✗
Charles Johnson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Johnson 38%62% Kavanagh
LEAN
→Elo gap: +27(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Kavanagh)
Lightweight✓
Rongzhu won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rongzhu 70%30% Hubbard
CONFIDENT
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +132(favors Rongzhu)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Rongzhu)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Hubbard)
Middleweight✗
Kyle Daukaus won by KO/TKO (R1)
Daukaus 49%51% Pereira
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -384(favors Pereira)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Pereira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Daukaus)
Featherweight✓
Yizha won by KO/TKO (R1)
Yizha 74%26% Wilson
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -173(favors Wilson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Yizha)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Yizha)
Bantamweight✓
SuYoung You won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
You 52%48% Long
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +59(favors You)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.9(favors Long)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors You)
Light Heavyweight✓
Uran Satybaldiev won by Submission (R1)
Satybaldiev 51%49% Nurgozhay
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +70(favors Satybaldiev)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Nurgozhay)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.6(favors Nurgozhay)