UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
Saturday, August 23, 2025·Shanghai, Hebei, China·12 fights
Model: 8/12(67%)
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Main Card
Light HeavyweightMISS
Johnny Walker won by KO/TKO (R2)
Walker 13%87% Mingyang
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
STRONGMarket: 25% (-11.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -54(favors Mingyang)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.7(favors Mingyang)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Walker)
Catch WeightHIT
Aljamain Sterling won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Sterling 66%34% Ortega
Over/UnderOver 69%
Under 31%Over 69%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +28(favors Sterling)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Ortega)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.3(favors Sterling)
HeavyweightHIT
Sergei Pavlovich won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pavlovich 74%26% Acosta
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (+5.0% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +235(favors Pavlovich)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Acosta)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Pavlovich)
FlyweightHIT
Sumudaerji won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sumudaerji 58%42% Borjas
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +9(favors Sumudaerji)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Borjas)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Borjas)
WelterweightHIT
Taiyilake Nueraji won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nueraji 88%12% Crosbie
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
STRONGMarket: 80% (+7.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +251(favors Nueraji)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.3(favors Crosbie)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Crosbie)
LightweightHIT
Gauge Young won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Young 61%39% Maheshate
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
LEANMarket: 57% (+4.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -15(favors Maheshate)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Young)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Maheshate)
Prelims
FlyweightMISS
Charles Johnson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Johnson 27%73% Kavanagh
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 31% (-4.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +15(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Kavanagh)
LightweightHIT
Rongzhu won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rongzhu 77%23% Hubbard
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
STRONGMarket: 71% (+5.9% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +95(favors Rongzhu)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Rongzhu)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Hubbard)
MiddleweightMISS
Kyle Daukaus won by KO/TKO (R1)
Daukaus 32%68% Pereira
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENTMarket: 31% (+1.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -423(favors Pereira)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Pereira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Daukaus)
FeatherweightHIT
Yizha won by KO/TKO (R1)
Yizha 84%16% Wilson
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
STRONGMarket: 87% (-3.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -326(favors Wilson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Yizha)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Yizha)
BantamweightHIT
SuYoung You won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
You 64%36% Long
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEANMarket: 56% (+8.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +50(favors You)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.9(favors Long)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors You)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Uran Satybaldiev won by Submission (R1)
Satybaldiev 48%52% Nurgozhay
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
TOSS-UPMarket: 49% (-0.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +140(favors Satybaldiev)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Nurgozhay)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.6(favors Nurgozhay)