UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Johnny Walker (7-6) taking on Zhang Mingyang (3-0). Walker is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Walker is rated at 1432 — 244 points above Mingyang's 1188. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mingyang has won 3 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mingyang throws significantly more leather — a 6.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Walker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Mingyang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zhang Mingyang over Johnny Walker. We're leaning Mingyang here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Catch Weight championship matchup features Aljamain Sterling (16-5) taking on Brian Ortega (8-4).

Sterling is rated at 1683 — 193 points above Ortega's 1490. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Sterling looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ortega is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sterling the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ortega throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Sterling is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Sterling has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aljamain Sterling over Brian Ortega. We're leaning Sterling here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Sergei Pavlovich (7-3) taking on Waldo Cortes Acosta (9-2). Pavlovich will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Pavlovich at 1663, Acosta at 1637. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Pavlovich's striker game against Acosta's all-rounder approach. Pavlovich brings a versatile approach, while Acosta is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Acosta throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pavlovich is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Acosta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sergei Pavlovich over Waldo Cortes Acosta. The model gives Pavlovich a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Sumudaerji (4-4) taking on Kevin Borjas (1-2). Sumudaerji is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Sumudaerji is rated at 1054 — 175 points above Borjas's 879. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Borjas throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Borjas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sumudaerji has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sumudaerji over Kevin Borjas. The model gives Sumudaerji a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Taiyilake Nueraji (0-0) taking on Kiefer Crosbie (0-2). Nueraji is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Nueraji is rated at 1064 — 318 points above Crosbie's 746. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Crosbie throws significantly more leather — a 6.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Crosbie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Nueraji has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Taiyilake Nueraji over Kiefer Crosbie. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nueraji at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Gauge Young (0-1) taking on Maheshate (2-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Maheshate.

Young is rated at 996 — 178 points above Maheshate's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Young throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Maheshate is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Maheshate has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gauge Young over Maheshate. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Young at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Charles Johnson (7-5) taking on Lone'er Kavanagh (2-0). Johnson is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Johnson carries a modest Elo edge (1097 to 1024), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Kavanagh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Kavanagh has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lone'er Kavanagh over Charles Johnson. The model gives Kavanagh a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Rongzhu (2-3) taking on Austin Hubbard (4-7).

Rongzhu is rated at 1058 — 240 points above Hubbard's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rongzhu's striker game against Hubbard's all-rounder approach. Rongzhu brings a versatile approach, while Hubbard is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rongzhu throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Hubbard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Hubbard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rongzhu over Austin Hubbard. We're leaning Rongzhu here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Kyle Daukaus (3-4) taking on Michel Pereira (9-5). Daukaus will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Daukaus carries a modest Elo edge (1170 to 1113), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Daukaus's wrestler game against Pereira's knockout artist approach. Daukaus looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Pereira is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pereira throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Daukaus is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Daukaus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michel Pereira over Kyle Daukaus. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pereira at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Yizha (1-2) taking on Westin Wilson (1-2). Wilson is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Yizha at 928 versus Wilson at 820. That 108-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yizha throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Yizha is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Yizha has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yizha over Westin Wilson. We're leaning Yizha here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features SuYoung You (2-0) taking on Xiao Long (1-1). Long is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

You is rated at 1207 — 200 points above Long's 1006. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Long throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. You is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. You has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: SuYoung You over Xiao Long. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward You at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Uran Satybaldiev (0-1) taking on Diyar Nurgozhay (0-1). Satybaldiev is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Satybaldiev is rated at 1017 — 247 points above Nurgozhay's 770. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nurgozhay throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurgozhay is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.6 more per 15 minutes. Nurgozhay has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Uran Satybaldiev over Diyar Nurgozhay. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Satybaldiev at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.