UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
Saturday, November 6, 2021·New York City, New York, USA
Model Record: 11/14Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Welterweight✓
Kamaru Usman won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Usman 86%14% Covington
STRONGMarket: 72% (+13.6% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +293(favors Usman)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Usman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Covington)
Women's Strawweight✓
Rose Namajunas won by Decision - Split (R5)
Namajunas 54%46% Weili
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +242(favors Namajunas)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Weili)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Weili)
Bantamweight✓
Marlon Vera won by KO/TKO (R3)
Vera 61%39% Edgar
LEANMarket: 59% (+2.2% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +19(favors Vera)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Vera)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Vera)
Featherweight✓
Shane Burgos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Burgos 62%38% Quarantillo
LEANMarket: 64% (-2.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -80(favors Quarantillo)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Burgos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Quarantillo)
Lightweight✓
Justin Gaethje won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gaethje 66%34% Chandler
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (-0.0% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +576(favors Gaethje)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Gaethje)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Chandler)
Middleweight✓
Alex Pereira won by KO/TKO (R2)
Pereira 79%21% Michailidis
STRONGMarket: 70% (+9.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +30(favors Pereira)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.8(favors Michailidis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Michailidis)
Lightweight✓
King Green won by KO/TKO (R1)
Green 59%41% Iaquinta
LEANMarket: 63% (-3.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -289(favors Iaquinta)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Green)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Green)
Middleweight✗
Chris Curtis won by KO/TKO (R1)
Curtis 33%67% Hawes
CONFIDENT
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -256(favors Hawes)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Hawes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.0(favors Hawes)
Middleweight✓
Nassourdine Imavov won by KO/TKO (R2)
Imavov 66%34% Shahbazyan
CONFIDENTMarket: 52% (+14.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -16(favors Shahbazyan)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Imavov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Imavov)
Welterweight✓
Ian Machado Garry won by KO/TKO (R1)
Garry 86%14% Williams
STRONGMarket: 77% (+8.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +160(favors Garry)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Williams)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Williams)
Heavyweight✗
Chris Barnett won by KO/TKO (R2)
Barnett 50%50% Villante
TOSS-UPMarket: 46% (+4.0% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +180(favors Barnett)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Villante)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Villante)
Light Heavyweight✓
Dustin Jacoby won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jacoby 79%21% Allan
STRONGMarket: 77% (+2.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +255(favors Jacoby)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Jacoby)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Allan)
Featherweight✓
Melsik Baghdasaryan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Baghdasaryan 61%39% Souza
LEAN
→Elo gap: +128(favors Baghdasaryan)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.4(favors Baghdasaryan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Souza)
Flyweight✗
Ode Osbourne won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Osbourne 47%53% Vergara
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -150(favors Vergara)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Osbourne)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Vergara)