UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Kamaru Usman (15-3) taking on Colby Covington (12-4). Usman will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Usman is rated at 1828 — 198 points above Covington's 1630. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Usman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Covington is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Usman the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Usman throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Covington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Usman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kamaru Usman over Colby Covington.** The model is firm on this one: Usman at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Usman at 72% implied while our model sees 86% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight championship matchup features Rose Namajunas (12-6) taking on Zhang Weili (10-2).

Weili is rated at 1649 — 228 points above Namajunas's 1421. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Weili has won 5 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Weili throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Weili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Namajunas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rose Namajunas over Zhang Weili.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Namajunas at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Marlon Vera (15-9) taking on Frankie Edgar (18-10-1). Vera is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Vera is rated at 1460 — 275 points above Edgar's 1185. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Vera's knockout artist game against Edgar's all-rounder approach. Vera is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Edgar is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vera throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Vera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Edgar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marlon Vera over Frankie Edgar.** The model gives Vera a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Shane Burgos (7-3) taking on Billy Quarantillo (6-4). Burgos will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Burgos is rated at 1365 — 400 points above Quarantillo's 965. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Burgos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Quarantillo looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Quarantillo the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burgos throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Quarantillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Burgos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Shane Burgos over Billy Quarantillo.** The model gives Burgos a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Justin Gaethje (9-5) taking on Michael Chandler (2-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Gaethje.

Gaethje is rated at 1847 — 528 points above Chandler's 1319. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gaethje's striker game against Chandler's all-rounder approach. Gaethje brings a versatile approach, while Chandler is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gaethje throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Chandler is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gaethje has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Justin Gaethje over Michael Chandler.** We're leaning Gaethje here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Alex Pereira (9-2) taking on Andreas Michailidis (1-2). Pereira is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Pereira is rated at 2004 — 1202 points above Michailidis's 802. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Michailidis throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Michailidis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Pereira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Pereira over Andreas Michailidis.** The model is firm on this one: Pereira at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Pereira at 70% implied while our model sees 79% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features King Green (13-12-1) taking on Al Iaquinta (9-5).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Green at 1176, Iaquinta at 1195. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Green's all-rounder game against Iaquinta's striker approach. Green is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Iaquinta brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Green is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: King Green over Al Iaquinta.** The model gives Green a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 63% for Green, but our model sees only 59%. That 4-point gap favoring Iaquinta is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Curtis (5-4) taking on Phil Hawes (4-3). Hawes is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Curtis is rated at 1258 — 431 points above Hawes's 827. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Curtis's striker game against Hawes's all-rounder approach. Curtis brings a versatile approach, while Hawes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hawes throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Hawes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Curtis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Phil Hawes over Chris Curtis.** We're leaning Hawes here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Nassourdine Imavov (8-2) taking on Edmen Shahbazyan (8-5).

Imavov is rated at 1876 — 562 points above Shahbazyan's 1314. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Imavov rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Imavov's all-rounder game against Shahbazyan's knockout artist approach. Imavov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Shahbazyan is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Imavov throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Imavov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Imavov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nassourdine Imavov over Edmen Shahbazyan.** We're leaning Imavov here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Imavov at 52% implied while our model sees 66% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Ian Machado Garry (9-1) taking on Jordan Williams (0-2).

Garry is rated at 1787 — 1020 points above Williams's 768. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Williams throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Williams is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Garry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ian Machado Garry over Jordan Williams.** The model is firm on this one: Garry at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Garry at 77% implied while our model sees 86% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Chris Barnett (2-3) taking on Gian Villante (7-10). There's a 6-inch height gap favoring Villante.

Barnett is rated at 861 — 156 points above Villante's 705. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Villante throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Villante is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Villante has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gian Villante over Chris Barnett.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Villante at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Barnett at 46% implied while our model sees 50% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dustin Jacoby (9-6-1) taking on John Allan (0-1).

Jacoby is rated at 1374 — 459 points above Allan's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jacoby throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Allan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Jacoby has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dustin Jacoby over John Allan.** The model is firm on this one: Jacoby at 79%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Melsik Baghdasaryan (3-1) taking on Bruno Souza (0-1).

Baghdasaryan is rated at 1056 — 190 points above Souza's 866. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Baghdasaryan throws significantly more leather — a 6.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Souza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Souza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Melsik Baghdasaryan over Bruno Souza.** The model gives Baghdasaryan a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Ode Osbourne (5-7) taking on CJ Vergara (3-4). Osbourne will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Osbourne carries a modest Elo edge (846 to 766), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Osbourne throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Vergara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Vergara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: CJ Vergara over Ode Osbourne.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Vergara at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.