UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
Saturday, September 18, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 12/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightHIT
Anthony Smith won by Submission (R1)
Smith 51%49% Spann
TOSS-UPMarket: 61% (-10.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +184(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Spann)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Spann)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ion Cutelaba won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cutelaba 50%50% Clark
TOSS-UPMarket: 56% (-5.9% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -42(favors Clark)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Cutelaba)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.1(favors Cutelaba)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Ariane da Silva won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Silva 58%42% Bohm
LEAN
→Elo gap: -125(favors Bohm)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Bohm)
LightweightHIT
Arman Tsarukyan won by KO/TKO (R1)
Tsarukyan 84%16% Giagos
STRONGMarket: 85% (-0.6% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +146(favors Tsarukyan)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Tsarukyan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Giagos)
BantamweightHIT
Nate Maness won by KO/TKO (R2)
Maness 57%43% Gravely
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +102(favors Maness)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Gravely)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.7(favors Gravely)
MiddleweightHIT
Joaquin Buckley won by KO/TKO (R3)
Buckley 73%27% Arroyo
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (+6.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +171(favors Buckley)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Buckley)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Buckley)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Tafon Nchukwi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nchukwi 72%28% Rodriguez
CONFIDENTMarket: 54% (+18.0% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +113(favors Nchukwi)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Nchukwi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Nchukwi)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Raquel Pennington won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pennington 47%53% Kianzad
TOSS-UPMarket: 53% (-5.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -6(favors Kianzad)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Kianzad)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Pennington)
LightweightHIT
Rongzhu won by KO/TKO (R3)
Rongzhu 62%38% Jenkins
LEAN
→Elo gap: -111(favors Jenkins)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Rongzhu)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Rongzhu)
BantamweightHIT
Montel Jackson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jackson 69%31% Buys
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +400(favors Jackson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Jackson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.9(favors Jackson)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Erin Blanchfield won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Blanchfield 76%24% Alpar
STRONGMarket: 73% (+3.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +168(favors Blanchfield)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Alpar)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Alpar)
WelterweightHIT
Carlston Harris won by KO/TKO (R1)
Harris 62%38% Kasanganay
LEANMarket: 45% (+16.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +53(favors Harris)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Kasanganay)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Kasanganay)
Bantamweight
Lopez 39%61% Alatengheili
LEAN
→Elo gap: -113(favors Alatengheili)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Alatengheili)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Alatengheili)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Hannah Goldy won by Submission (R1)
Goldy 53%47% Whitmire
TOSS-UPMarket: 47% (+6.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -19(favors Whitmire)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Goldy)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Whitmire)