UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Anthony Smith (13-11) taking on Ryan Spann (8-6). Spann will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Spann carries a modest Elo edge (1116 to 1070), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Smith is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Spann is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Spann the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spann throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Spann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Spann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Smith over Ryan Spann.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Smith at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 61% for Smith, but our model sees only 51%. That 10-point gap favoring Spann is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ion Cutelaba (8-9-1) taking on Devin Clark (8-8).

Cutelaba is rated at 1147 — 202 points above Clark's 944. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cutelaba throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Cutelaba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.1 more per 15 minutes. Clark has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ion Cutelaba over Devin Clark.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cutelaba at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 56% for Cutelaba, but our model sees only 50%. That 6-point gap favoring Clark is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Ariane da Silva (6-7) taking on Mandy Bohm (0-2). Bohm will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Silva at 976 versus Bohm at 849. That 128-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Bohm is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bohm has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ariane da Silva over Mandy Bohm.** The model gives Silva a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Arman Tsarukyan (9-2) taking on Christos Giagos (6-7). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Giagos.

Tsarukyan is rated at 1836 — 896 points above Giagos's 940. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Tsarukyan rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Tsarukyan's striker game against Giagos's wrestler approach. Tsarukyan brings a versatile approach, while Giagos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tsarukyan throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Giagos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Tsarukyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Arman Tsarukyan over Christos Giagos.** The model is firm on this one: Tsarukyan at 84%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Nate Maness (4-2) taking on Tony Gravely (4-3). Maness is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Maness is rated at 1176 — 165 points above Gravely's 1012. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Maness is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Gravely brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Maness the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gravely throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Gravely is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.7 more per 15 minutes. Maness has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nate Maness over Tony Gravely.** The model gives Maness a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Joaquin Buckley (11-4) taking on Antonio Arroyo (0-2). Buckley will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Buckley is rated at 1728 — 967 points above Arroyo's 761. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Buckley rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Buckley throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Buckley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Buckley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joaquin Buckley over Antonio Arroyo.** We're leaning Buckley here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Buckley at 67% implied while our model sees 73% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Tafon Nchukwi (2-3) taking on Mike Rodriguez (2-4). Rodriguez is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Rodriguez at 810 versus Nchukwi at 716. That 94-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nchukwi throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Nchukwi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Nchukwi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tafon Nchukwi over Mike Rodriguez.** We're leaning Nchukwi here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Nchukwi at 54% implied while our model sees 72% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Raquel Pennington (13-5) taking on Pannie Kianzad (5-5).

Pennington is rated at 1411 — 468 points above Kianzad's 943. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pennington rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Pennington's all-rounder game against Kianzad's striker approach. Pennington is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Kianzad brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kianzad throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pennington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Pennington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Pannie Kianzad over Raquel Pennington.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kianzad at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 53% for Pennington, but our model sees only 47%. That 6-point gap favoring Kianzad is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Rongzhu (2-3) taking on Brandon Jenkins (0-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Jenkins.

Rongzhu is rated at 1058 — 249 points above Jenkins's 808. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rongzhu throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Rongzhu is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Jenkins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rongzhu over Brandon Jenkins.** The model gives Rongzhu a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Montel Jackson (9-2) taking on JP Buys (0-3). Jackson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Jackson is rated at 1448 — 769 points above Buys's 679. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jackson rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.9 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Montel Jackson over JP Buys.** We're leaning Jackson here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Erin Blanchfield (7-1) taking on Sarah Alpar (0-1). Blanchfield will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Blanchfield is rated at 1631 — 846 points above Alpar's 785. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alpar throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Alpar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Blanchfield has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Erin Blanchfield over Sarah Alpar.** The model is firm on this one: Blanchfield at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Blanchfield at 73% implied while our model sees 76% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Carlston Harris (4-2) taking on Impa Kasanganay (2-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Harris at 1097 versus Kasanganay at 961. That 136-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kasanganay throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Kasanganay is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Carlston Harris over Impa Kasanganay.** The model gives Harris a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Harris at 45% implied while our model sees 62% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Gustavo Lopez (1-2) taking on Alatengheili (5-2-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Alatengheili at 1129 versus Lopez at 988. That 141-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alatengheili throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Alatengheili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Alatengheili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alatengheili over Gustavo Lopez.** The model gives Alatengheili a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Hannah Goldy (1-3) taking on Emily Whitmire (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Goldy at 812 versus Whitmire at 703. That 110-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Goldy throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Whitmire is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Whitmire has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Hannah Goldy over Emily Whitmire.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Goldy at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Goldy at 47% implied while our model sees 53% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.