UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till
Saturday, September 4, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 7/9Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
MiddleweightHIT
Derek Brunson won by Submission (R3)
Brunson 69%31% Till
CONFIDENTMarket: 39% (+30.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +151(favors Brunson)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Brunson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Brunson)
HeavyweightHIT
Tom Aspinall won by KO/TKO (R1)
Aspinall 61%39% Spivac
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +74(favors Aspinall)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Aspinall)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Aspinall)
WelterweightHIT
Alex Morono won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Morono 59%41% Zawada
LEANMarket: 58% (+0.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +282(favors Morono)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Morono)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Morono)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Khalil Rountree Jr. won by KO/TKO (R2)
Jr. 40%60% Bukauskas
LEAN
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -82(favors Bukauskas)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Jr.)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Bukauskas)
LightweightHIT
Paddy Pimblett won by KO/TKO (R1)
Pimblett 51%49% Vendramini
TOSS-UPMarket: 56% (-5.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +14(favors Pimblett)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Vendramini)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Vendramini)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Molly McCann won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
McCann 61%39% Kim
LEANMarket: 48% (+12.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -92(favors Kim)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors McCann)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors McCann)
BantamweightHIT
Jack Shore won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Shore 88%12% Sholinian
STRONGMarket: 80% (+8.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +190(favors Shore)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Shore)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.5(favors Shore)
Catch WeightMISS
Julian Erosa won by Submission (R3)
Erosa 29%71% Jourdain
CONFIDENTMarket: 37% (-7.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -237(favors Jourdain)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Erosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Erosa)
MiddleweightHIT
Marc-Andre Barriault won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barriault 58%42% Lungiambula
LEANMarket: 60% (-1.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -30(favors Lungiambula)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Barriault)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Lungiambula)