UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Derek Brunson (14-6) taking on Darren Till (6-4-1). Brunson will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Brunson at 1402 versus Till at 1296. That 106-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Brunson's wrestler game against Till's striker approach. Brunson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Till brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brunson throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Brunson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Brunson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Derek Brunson over Darren Till.** We're leaning Brunson here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Brunson at 39% implied while our model sees 69% — a 30-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Tom Aspinall (8-1) taking on Serghei Spivac (8-6).

Aspinall is rated at 1917 — 562 points above Spivac's 1355. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Aspinall rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Aspinall's knockout artist game against Spivac's wrestler approach. Aspinall is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Spivac looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aspinall throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Aspinall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Aspinall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tom Aspinall over Serghei Spivac.** The model gives Aspinall a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Morono (13-9) taking on David Zawada (1-3). Zawada will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Zawada at 991 versus Morono at 868. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morono throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Morono is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Zawada has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Morono over David Zawada.** The model gives Morono a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Khalil Rountree Jr. (10-6) taking on Modestas Bukauskas (7-4).

Jr. is rated at 1506 — 338 points above Bukauskas's 1168. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bukauskas has won 4 straight.

The style clash matters here: Jr. brings a versatile approach, while Bukauskas is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Bukauskas the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jr. throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Bukauskas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jr. has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Modestas Bukauskas over Khalil Rountree Jr..** The model gives Bukauskas a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Paddy Pimblett (7-0) taking on Luigi Vendramini (1-2).

Pimblett is rated at 1568 — 705 points above Vendramini's 864. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pimblett rides a 7-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vendramini throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Vendramini is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Pimblett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paddy Pimblett over Luigi Vendramini.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pimblett at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 56% for Pimblett, but our model sees only 51%. That 6-point gap favoring Vendramini is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Molly McCann (7-6) taking on Ji Yeon Kim (3-6). Kim is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: McCann at 834 versus Kim at 723. That 111-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is McCann's all-rounder game against Kim's striker approach. McCann is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Kim brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McCann throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. McCann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. McCann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Molly McCann over Ji Yeon Kim.** The model gives McCann a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has McCann at 48% implied while our model sees 61% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jack Shore (6-2) taking on Liudvik Sholinian (0-1).

Shore is rated at 1070 — 204 points above Sholinian's 866. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shore throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Shore is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Sholinian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jack Shore over Liudvik Sholinian.** The model is firm on this one: Shore at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Shore at 80% implied while our model sees 88% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Catch Weight matchup features Julian Erosa (9-7) taking on Charles Jourdain (7-7-1). Erosa is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Jourdain carries a modest Elo edge (1354 to 1280), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Erosa rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Erosa throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Erosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Jourdain has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Charles Jourdain over Julian Erosa.** We're leaning Jourdain here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 37% for Erosa, but our model sees only 29%. That 8-point gap favoring Jourdain is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Marc-Andre Barriault (6-9) taking on Dalcha Lungiambula (2-4). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Barriault.

Barriault is rated at 954 — 215 points above Lungiambula's 739. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Barriault's all-rounder game against Lungiambula's striker approach. Barriault is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lungiambula brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barriault throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Lungiambula is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Barriault has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marc-Andre Barriault over Dalcha Lungiambula.** The model gives Barriault a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.