UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Giga Chikadze (8-4) taking on Edson Barboza (18-14).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Chikadze at 1280, Barboza at 1310. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Chikadze's striker game against Barboza's all-rounder approach. Chikadze brings a versatile approach, while Barboza is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barboza throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Chikadze is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Chikadze has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Giga Chikadze over Edson Barboza. We're leaning Chikadze here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Chikadze at 47% implied while our model sees 67% — a 20-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Bryan Battle (7-1) taking on Gilbert Urbina (1-3).

Battle is rated at 1520 — 716 points above Urbina's 805. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Urbina throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Urbina is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Urbina has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bryan Battle over Gilbert Urbina. The model gives Battle a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 62% for Battle, but our model sees only 58%. That 5-point gap favoring Urbina is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ricky Turcios (2-4) taking on Brady Hiestand (3-1).

Hiestand is rated at 1354 — 609 points above Turcios's 746. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hiestand throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hiestand is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hiestand has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brady Hiestand over Ricky Turcios. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hiestand at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 59% for Turcios, but our model sees only 47%. That 12-point gap favoring Hiestand is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Daniel Rodriguez (10-4) taking on Kevin Lee (11-8). Lee will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Rodriguez at 1511 versus Lee at 1373. That 139-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Rodriguez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lee looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Lee the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Rodriguez over Kevin Lee. The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Rodriguez at 43% implied while our model sees 60% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Andre Petroski (8-4) taking on Micheal Gillmore (0-2).

Petroski is rated at 1060 — 362 points above Gillmore's 698. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gillmore throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gillmore is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gillmore has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Petroski over Micheal Gillmore. The model is firm on this one: Petroski at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Petroski at 82% implied while our model sees 89% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Gerald Meerschaert (12-13) taking on Makhmud Muradov (4-2).

Muradov is rated at 1213 — 214 points above Meerschaert's 999. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Meerschaert throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Meerschaert is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Muradov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Makhmud Muradov over Gerald Meerschaert. The model is firm on this one: Muradov at 84%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Abdul Razak Alhassan (6-7) taking on Alessio Di Chirico (4-7).

Alhassan is rated at 1071 — 257 points above Chirico's 814. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alhassan throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Chirico is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Chirico has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alessio Di Chirico over Abdul Razak Alhassan. We're leaning Chirico here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Wellington Turman (3-6) taking on Sam Alvey (10-13-1). Alvey is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Turman at 889, Alvey at 862. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvey throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Turman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Alvey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sam Alvey over Wellington Turman. The model gives Alvey a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 54% for Turman, but our model sees only 42%. That 11-point gap favoring Alvey is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dustin Jacoby (10-6-1) taking on Darren Stewart (5-7). Jacoby is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Jacoby is rated at 1411 — 387 points above Stewart's 1024. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jacoby's striker game against Stewart's all-rounder approach. Jacoby brings a versatile approach, while Stewart is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jacoby throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Stewart is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Jacoby has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Jacoby over Darren Stewart. The model gives Jacoby a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 64% for Jacoby, but our model sees only 55%. That 9-point gap favoring Stewart is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features JJ Aldrich (10-6) taking on Vanessa Demopoulos (5-5). Aldrich is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Aldrich is rated at 1113 — 204 points above Demopoulos's 908. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Aldrich's striker game against Demopoulos's all-rounder approach. Aldrich brings a versatile approach, while Demopoulos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldrich throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Aldrich is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Demopoulos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: JJ Aldrich over Vanessa Demopoulos. The model is firm on this one: Aldrich at 91%. Notably, the betting market has Aldrich at 77% implied while our model sees 91% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Pat Sabatini (8-2) taking on Jamall Emmers (5-4). Emmers is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Sabatini is rated at 1530 — 337 points above Emmers's 1193. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sabatini's wrestler game against Emmers's striker approach. Sabatini looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Emmers brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Emmers throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Emmers is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Sabatini has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pat Sabatini over Jamall Emmers. The model gives Sabatini a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Sabatini at 43% implied while our model sees 64% — a 21-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Mana Martinez (2-2) taking on Guido Cannetti (4-6). Martinez is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Cannetti carries a modest Elo edge (1026 to 965), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cannetti throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Cannetti is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Martinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mana Martinez over Guido Cannetti. The model is firm on this one: Martinez at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Martinez at 71% implied while our model sees 76% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.