UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises
Saturday, July 17, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 6/9Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightHIT
Islam Makhachev won by Submission (R4)
Makhachev 87%13% Moises
STRONGMarket: 83% (+3.2% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +296(favors Makhachev)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Moises)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Makhachev)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Miesha Tate won by KO/TKO (R3)
Tate 73%27% Reneau
CONFIDENTMarket: 56% (+17.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +223(favors Tate)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Reneau)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Reneau)
LightweightHIT
Mateusz Gamrot won by Submission (R1)
Gamrot 84%16% Stephens
STRONGMarket: 66% (+17.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -15(favors Stephens)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Gamrot)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.9(favors Gamrot)
MiddleweightHIT
Rodolfo Vieira won by Submission (R3)
Vieira 62%38% Stoltzfus
LEANMarket: 67% (-5.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +100(favors Vieira)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Stoltzfus)
→Takedown rate advantage: +7.0(favors Vieira)
FeatherweightMISS
Billy Quarantillo won by KO/TKO (R3)
Quarantillo 31%69% Benitez
CONFIDENTMarket: 37% (-6.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +15(favors Quarantillo)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Quarantillo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Quarantillo)
WelterweightHIT
Daniel Rodriguez won by KO/TKO (R1)
Rodriguez 76%24% Parsons
STRONGMarket: 70% (+5.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +258(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: +8.1(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Rodriguez)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Amanda Lemos won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lemos 59%41% Ruiz
LEAN
→Elo gap: +153(favors Lemos)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.2(favors Lemos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Ruiz)
BantamweightMISS
Sergey Morozov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Morozov 41%59% Taha
LEANMarket: 40% (+1.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -153(favors Taha)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Taha)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Taha)
FlyweightMISS
Malcolm Gordon won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gordon 34%66% Figueiredo
CONFIDENTMarket: 27% (+6.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -264(favors Figueiredo)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Figueiredo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.0(favors Figueiredo)
Heavyweight
Baudot 43%57% Nascimento
LEAN
→Elo gap: -374(favors Nascimento)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Nascimento)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.8(favors Nascimento)