UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Islam Makhachev (16-1) taking on Thiago Moises (8-6).

Makhachev is rated at 2210 — 1086 points above Moises's 1124. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Makhachev rides a 15-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Makhachev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Moises is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Makhachev the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moises throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Makhachev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Makhachev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Islam Makhachev over Thiago Moises. The model is firm on this one: Makhachev at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Makhachev at 83% implied while our model sees 87% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Miesha Tate (7-6) taking on Marion Reneau (5-6-1). Reneau will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Tate is rated at 1077 — 199 points above Reneau's 878. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Tate looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Reneau is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Tate the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reneau throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Reneau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Tate has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Miesha Tate over Marion Reneau. We're leaning Tate here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Tate at 56% implied while our model sees 73% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Mateusz Gamrot (8-3) taking on Jeremy Stephens (15-18).

Gamrot is rated at 1571 — 630 points above Stephens's 941. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gamrot's wrestler game against Stephens's striker approach. Gamrot looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Stephens brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gamrot throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamrot is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Gamrot has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mateusz Gamrot over Jeremy Stephens. The model is firm on this one: Gamrot at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Gamrot at 66% implied while our model sees 84% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Rodolfo Vieira (6-3) taking on Dustin Stoltzfus (3-6).

Vieira carries a modest Elo edge (1069 to 1012), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Vieira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Stoltzfus is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Vieira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stoltzfus throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Vieira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.0 more per 15 minutes. Stoltzfus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rodolfo Vieira over Dustin Stoltzfus. The model gives Vieira a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 67% for Vieira, but our model sees only 62%. That 5-point gap favoring Stoltzfus is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Billy Quarantillo (6-4) taking on Gabriel Benitez (7-7).

There's a real Elo separation here: Quarantillo at 965 versus Benitez at 856. That 110-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quarantillo throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Quarantillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Benitez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gabriel Benitez over Billy Quarantillo. We're leaning Benitez here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 37% for Quarantillo, but our model sees only 31%. That 7-point gap favoring Benitez is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Daniel Rodriguez (9-4) taking on Preston Parsons (2-3). Rodriguez is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Rodriguez is rated at 1494 — 627 points above Parsons's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Rodriguez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Parsons looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Parsons the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 8.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Parsons has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Rodriguez over Preston Parsons. The model is firm on this one: Rodriguez at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Rodriguez at 70% implied while our model sees 76% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Amanda Lemos (9-4) taking on Montserrat Conejo Ruiz (1-3). Lemos is the bigger frame at 5'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Lemos is rated at 1335 — 615 points above Ruiz's 720. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lemos throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ruiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Ruiz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amanda Lemos over Montserrat Conejo Ruiz. The model gives Lemos a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Sergey Morozov (2-2) taking on Khalid Taha (1-3).

Morozov is rated at 1124 — 301 points above Taha's 823. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Taha throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Taha is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Taha has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Khalid Taha over Sergey Morozov. The model gives Taha a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Malcolm Gordon (2-4) taking on Francisco Figueiredo (2-1). Gordon will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Figueiredo is rated at 954 — 205 points above Gordon's 749. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Figueiredo throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Figueiredo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Figueiredo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Francisco Figueiredo over Malcolm Gordon. We're leaning Figueiredo here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Gordon at 27% implied while our model sees 34% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alan Baudot (0-2) taking on Rodrigo Nascimento (4-2).

Nascimento is rated at 1092 — 374 points above Baudot's 718. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nascimento throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Nascimento is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Nascimento has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rodrigo Nascimento over Alan Baudot. The model gives Nascimento a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.