UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
Saturday, July 10, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 10/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightHIT
Dustin Poirier won by KO/TKO (R1)
Poirier 62%38% McGregor
LEANMarket: 54% (+7.9% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +273(favors Poirier)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Poirier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Poirier)
WelterweightHIT
Gilbert Burns won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Burns 55%45% Thompson
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+13.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +129(favors Burns)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Thompson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Burns)
HeavyweightMISS
Tai Tuivasa won by KO/TKO (R1)
Tuivasa 45%55% Hardy
TOSS-UPMarket: 55% (-9.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +40(favors Tuivasa)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Hardy)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Hardy)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Irene Aldana won by KO/TKO (R1)
Aldana 54%46% Santos
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (+2.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +15(favors Aldana)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Aldana)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Santos)
BantamweightHIT
Sean O'Malley won by KO/TKO (R3)
O'Malley 73%27% Moutinho
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +285(favors O'Malley)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.1(favors O'Malley)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Moutinho)
WelterweightHIT
Max Griffin won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Griffin 66%34% Condit
CONFIDENTMarket: 63% (+2.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +30(favors Griffin)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Griffin)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Griffin)
WelterweightHIT
Michel Pereira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pereira 67%33% Price
CONFIDENTMarket: 59% (+7.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +13(favors Pereira)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.3(favors Price)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Pereira)
FeatherweightHIT
Ilia Topuria won by KO/TKO (R1)
Topuria 61%39% Hall
LEANMarket: 67% (-6.5% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -86(favors Hall)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Topuria)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.9(favors Topuria)
MiddleweightMISS
Dricus Du Plessis won by KO/TKO (R2)
Plessis 47%53% Giles
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -173(favors Giles)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.1(favors Plessis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Giles)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Jennifer Maia won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Maia 65%35% Eye
CONFIDENTMarket: 63% (+2.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +153(favors Maia)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Eye)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Maia)
MiddleweightHIT
Brad Tavares won by Decision - Split (R3)
Tavares 56%44% Akhmedov
LEANMarket: 60% (-4.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -132(favors Akhmedov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Tavares)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Akhmedov)
FlyweightHIT
Zhalgas Zhumagulov won by Submission (R1)
Zhumagulov 77%23% Rivera
STRONGMarket: 74% (+3.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +144(favors Zhumagulov)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Zhumagulov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Zhumagulov)