UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Dustin Poirier (22-8) taking on Conor McGregor (10-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Poirier at 1681 versus McGregor at 1573. That 109-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Poirier is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while McGregor brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Poirier the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Poirier throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Poirier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Poirier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Poirier over Conor McGregor. The model gives Poirier a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Poirier at 54% implied while our model sees 62% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Gilbert Burns (15-8) taking on Stephen Thompson (12-8-1). Thompson is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Burns carries a modest Elo edge (1379 to 1329), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Burns's all-rounder game against Thompson's striker approach. Burns is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Thompson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thompson throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Thompson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gilbert Burns over Stephen Thompson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Burns at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Burns at 41% implied while our model sees 55% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Tai Tuivasa (8-8) taking on Greg Hardy (4-4). Hardy is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Tuivasa at 1107 versus Hardy at 958. That 149-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hardy throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hardy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Hardy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Greg Hardy over Tai Tuivasa. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hardy at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 55% for Tuivasa, but our model sees only 45%. That 10-point gap favoring Hardy is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Irene Aldana (8-5) taking on Yana Santos (6-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Aldana.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Aldana at 1331, Santos at 1304. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Aldana is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Santos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Santos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldana throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Aldana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Irene Aldana over Yana Santos. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Aldana at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Sean O'Malley (10-3) taking on Kris Moutinho (0-2). O'Malley is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

O'Malley is rated at 1748 — 1005 points above Moutinho's 743. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. O'Malley throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Moutinho is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Moutinho has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean O'Malley over Kris Moutinho. We're leaning O'Malley here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Max Griffin (8-9) taking on Carlos Condit (9-9). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Condit.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Griffin at 1152, Condit at 1165. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Griffin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Griffin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Max Griffin over Carlos Condit. We're leaning Griffin here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Michel Pereira (9-5) taking on Niko Price (8-9). Price will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pereira is rated at 1113 — 297 points above Price's 816. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Price throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pereira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Pereira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michel Pereira over Niko Price. We're leaning Pereira here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Pereira at 59% implied while our model sees 67% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Ilia Topuria (8-0) taking on Ryan Hall (4-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Hall.

Topuria is rated at 2094 — 879 points above Hall's 1214. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Topuria rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Topuria's knockout artist game against Hall's all-rounder approach. Topuria is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Hall is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Topuria throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Topuria is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Hall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ilia Topuria over Ryan Hall. The model gives Topuria a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 67% for Topuria, but our model sees only 61%. That 6-point gap favoring Hall is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Dricus Du Plessis (9-0) taking on Trevin Giles (7-6).

Plessis is rated at 1860 — 1016 points above Giles's 845. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Plessis rides a 9-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Plessis throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Giles is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Plessis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Trevin Giles over Dricus Du Plessis. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Giles at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jennifer Maia (6-5) taking on Jessica Eye (5-9). Eye is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Maia is rated at 1193 — 243 points above Eye's 950. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Maia's all-rounder game against Eye's striker approach. Maia is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Eye brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Eye throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Maia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Maia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jennifer Maia over Jessica Eye. We're leaning Maia here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Brad Tavares (16-10) taking on Omari Akhmedov (9-4-1).

Akhmedov is rated at 1303 — 379 points above Tavares's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Tavares's striker game against Akhmedov's all-rounder approach. Tavares brings a versatile approach, while Akhmedov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tavares throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Akhmedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Tavares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brad Tavares over Omari Akhmedov. The model gives Tavares a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 60% for Tavares, but our model sees only 56%. That 4-point gap favoring Akhmedov is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Zhalgas Zhumagulov (1-5) taking on Jerome Rivera (0-3). Rivera is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Zhumagulov at 764 versus Rivera at 665. That 99-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zhumagulov throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Zhumagulov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Zhumagulov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zhalgas Zhumagulov over Jerome Rivera. The model is firm on this one: Zhumagulov at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Zhumagulov at 74% implied while our model sees 77% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.