UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Chan Sung Jung (7-4) taking on Dan Ige (11-9).

Jung is rated at 1528 — 293 points above Ige's 1235. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jung throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ige is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Ige has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dan Ige over Chan Sung Jung.** We're leaning Ige here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 41% for Jung, but our model sees only 33%. That 8-point gap favoring Ige is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Serghei Spivac (8-6) taking on Aleksei Oleinik (9-7).

Spivac is rated at 1355 — 282 points above Oleinik's 1073. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Spivac looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Oleinik is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Spivac the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spivac throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Spivac is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Spivac has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Serghei Spivac over Aleksei Oleinik.** The model is firm on this one: Spivac at 75%.

The Bantamweight matchup features Marlon Vera (15-9) taking on Davey Grant (8-6).

Vera is rated at 1460 — 260 points above Grant's 1200. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vera throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Grant is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marlon Vera over Davey Grant.** We're leaning Vera here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Vera at 67% implied while our model sees 74% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features SeungWoo Choi (4-6) taking on Julian Erosa (9-7).

Erosa is rated at 1280 — 459 points above Choi's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Erosa has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Choi's striker game against Erosa's all-rounder approach. Choi brings a versatile approach, while Erosa is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Erosa throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Erosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Erosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Julian Erosa over SeungWoo Choi.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Erosa at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Bruno Silva (4-6) taking on Wellington Turman (3-5).

Turman carries a modest Elo edge (866 to 798), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Silva's striker game against Turman's all-rounder approach. Silva brings a versatile approach, while Turman is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Turman throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Turman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Wellington Turman over Bruno Silva.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Turman at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Brown (16-13) taking on Dhiego Lima (4-6).

Brown is rated at 1201 — 258 points above Lima's 943. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Brown's all-rounder game against Lima's striker approach. Brown is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lima brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Lima has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dhiego Lima over Matt Brown.** The model gives Lima a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Nicolae Negumereanu (4-1) taking on Aleksa Camur (1-2). Negumereanu will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Negumereanu is rated at 1019 — 208 points above Camur's 811. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Negumereanu rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camur throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Camur is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Camur has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Aleksa Camur over Nicolae Negumereanu.** The model gives Camur a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Virna Jandiroba (8-3) taking on Kanako Murata (1-1). Jandiroba is the bigger frame at 5'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Jandiroba is rated at 1457 — 568 points above Murata's 889. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jandiroba rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jandiroba throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Murata is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Jandiroba has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kanako Murata over Virna Jandiroba.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Murata at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 56% for Jandiroba, but our model sees only 49%. That 7-point gap favoring Murata is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Khaos Williams (6-3) taking on Matthew Semelsberger (5-5).

Williams is rated at 1159 — 297 points above Semelsberger's 861. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Williams brings a versatile approach, while Semelsberger is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Semelsberger the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Semelsberger throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Semelsberger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Semelsberger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Khaos Williams over Matthew Semelsberger.** The model gives Williams a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Josh Parisian (2-4) taking on Roque Martinez (0-2). Parisian is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Parisian carries a modest Elo edge (772 to 742), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Parisian throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Martinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Martinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Josh Parisian over Roque Martinez.** The model is firm on this one: Parisian at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Parisian at 56% implied while our model sees 76% — a 19-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Ricky Glenn (4-5-1) taking on Joaquim Silva (6-5). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Glenn.

Silva is rated at 1139 — 253 points above Glenn's 886. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Glenn's all-rounder game against Silva's knockout artist approach. Glenn is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Glenn throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Glenn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Glenn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ricky Glenn over Joaquim Silva.** The model gives Glenn a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Casey O'Neill (4-2) taking on Lara Procopio (1-1). O'Neill is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

O'Neill is rated at 1172 — 222 points above Procopio's 951. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Procopio throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. O'Neill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Procopio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Casey O'Neill over Lara Procopio.** We're leaning O'Neill here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.