UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Jairzinho Rozenstruik (9-5) taking on Augusto Sakai (4-4).

Rozenstruik is rated at 1385 — 263 points above Sakai's 1122. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sakai throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Sakai is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Sakai has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jairzinho Rozenstruik over Augusto Sakai.** The model gives Rozenstruik a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Rozenstruik at 53% implied while our model sees 60% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcin Tybura (14-8) taking on Walt Harris (6-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Tybura at 1242 versus Harris at 1133. That 109-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tybura throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Tybura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Tybura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marcin Tybura over Walt Harris.** The model is firm on this one: Tybura at 82%. Notably, the betting market has Tybura at 60% implied while our model sees 82% — a 21-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Roman Dolidze (9-3) taking on Laureano Staropoli (2-3). Dolidze will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Dolidze is rated at 1546 — 746 points above Staropoli's 801. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dolidze rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Staropoli throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Dolidze is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Dolidze has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Roman Dolidze over Laureano Staropoli.** We're leaning Dolidze here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Dolidze at 57% implied while our model sees 67% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Santiago Ponzinibbio (12-7) taking on Miguel Baeza (3-3).

Ponzinibbio is rated at 1177 — 327 points above Baeza's 850. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ponzinibbio brings a versatile approach, while Baeza is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Baeza the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Baeza throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Baeza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Baeza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Miguel Baeza over Santiago Ponzinibbio.** The model gives Baeza a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 47% for Ponzinibbio, but our model sees only 37%. That 10-point gap favoring Baeza is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Gregory Rodrigues (8-3) taking on Dusko Todorovic (3-6).

Rodrigues is rated at 1515 — 643 points above Todorovic's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rodrigues's striker game against Todorovic's submission artist approach. Rodrigues brings a versatile approach, while Todorovic is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Todorovic throws significantly more leather — a 8.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Todorovic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Rodrigues has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dusko Todorovic over Gregory Rodrigues.** The model gives Todorovic a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 41% for Rodrigues, but our model sees only 37%. That 4-point gap favoring Todorovic is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Montana De La Rosa (5-5-1) taking on Ariane da Silva (6-7).

Rosa carries a modest Elo edge (1036 to 976), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Montana De La Rosa over Ariane da Silva.** We're leaning Rosa here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Ilir Latifi (9-6) taking on Tanner Boser (4-5). Boser is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Latifi is rated at 1195 — 211 points above Boser's 984. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Latifi's all-rounder game against Boser's striker approach. Latifi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Boser brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Boser throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Latifi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Boser has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tanner Boser over Ilir Latifi.** The model gives Boser a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Muslim Salikhov (9-4) taking on Francisco Trinaldo (18-7).

There's a real Elo separation here: Trinaldo at 1329 versus Salikhov at 1183. That 146-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Salikhov rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Salikhov's striker game against Trinaldo's all-rounder approach. Salikhov brings a versatile approach, while Trinaldo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Salikhov throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Salikhov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Salikhov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Muslim Salikhov over Francisco Trinaldo.** The model is firm on this one: Salikhov at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Salikhov at 70% implied while our model sees 76% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Kamuela Kirk (1-1) taking on Makwan Amirkhani (7-6). Kirk will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Amirkhani carries a modest Elo edge (965 to 888), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Amirkhani throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Amirkhani is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Kirk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Makwan Amirkhani over Kamuela Kirk.** We're leaning Amirkhani here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Alan Patrick (5-3) taking on Mason Jones (2-2).

Jones is rated at 1175 — 313 points above Patrick's 863. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 6.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Patrick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Jones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mason Jones over Alan Patrick.** The model is firm on this one: Jones at 85%. The market implies 28% for Patrick, but our model sees only 15%. That 13-point gap favoring Jones is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Manon Fiorot (7-1) taking on Tabatha Ricci (6-3). Fiorot is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Fiorot is rated at 1641 — 286 points above Ricci's 1355. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Fiorot's striker game against Ricci's all-rounder approach. Fiorot brings a versatile approach, while Ricci is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fiorot throws significantly more leather — a 5.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Fiorot is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Ricci has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Manon Fiorot over Tabatha Ricci.** We're leaning Fiorot here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Sean Woodson (7-1-1) taking on Youssef Zalal (7-3-1). Woodson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Zalal is rated at 1532 — 298 points above Woodson's 1235. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Woodson rides a 4-fight win streak into this one, while Zalal has won 4 straight.

The style clash matters here: Woodson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Zalal looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Zalal the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Woodson throws significantly more leather — a 5.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Zalal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Zalal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Youssef Zalal over Sean Woodson.** The model gives Zalal a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 63% for Woodson, but our model sees only 43%. That 20-point gap favoring Zalal is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Claudio Puelles (5-3) taking on Jordan Leavitt (5-3).

Leavitt is rated at 1198 — 158 points above Puelles's 1040. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Leavitt throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Leavitt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 37.9 more per 15 minutes. Leavitt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jordan Leavitt over Claudio Puelles.** The model is firm on this one: Leavitt at 80%. The market implies 35% for Puelles, but our model sees only 20%. That 15-point gap favoring Leavitt is worth watching.