UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
Saturday, August 16, 2025·Chicago, Illinois, USA
Model Record: 9/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Middleweight✗
Khamzat Chimaev won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Chimaev 43%57% Plessis
LEAN
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -83(favors Plessis)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Plessis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Chimaev)
Featherweight✓
Lerone Murphy won by KO/TKO (R1)
Murphy 74%26% Pico
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +648(favors Murphy)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.3(favors Murphy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Murphy)
Welterweight✓
Carlos Prates won by KO/TKO (R1)
Prates 60%40% Neal
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -90(favors Neal)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Neal)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Neal)
Middleweight✓
Michael Page won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Page 58%42% Cannonier
LEAN
→Elo gap: -294(favors Cannonier)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Cannonier)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Cannonier)
Flyweight✓
Tim Elliott won by Submission (R2)
Elliott 61%39% Asakura
LEAN
→Elo gap: +191(favors Elliott)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Elliott)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Elliott)
Middleweight✓
Baisangur Susurkaev won by Submission (R2)
Susurkaev 57%43% Nolan
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Nolan)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Nolan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Nolan)
Middleweight✓
Michal Oleksiejczuk won by KO/TKO (R1)
Oleksiejczuk 69%31% Meerschaert
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +180(favors Oleksiejczuk)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.7(favors Oleksiejczuk)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Oleksiejczuk)
Women's Strawweight✓
Loopy Godinez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Godinez 66%34% Andrade
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -48(favors Andrade)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Godinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Godinez)
Lightweight✗
Alexander Hernandez won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hernandez 23%77% Hooper
STRONG
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: -240(favors Hooper)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Hooper)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.6(favors Hooper)
Lightweight✓
Drakkar Klose won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Klose 68%32% Barboza
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -91(favors Barboza)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Klose)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Klose)
Women's Flyweight✓
Karine Silva won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Silva 67%33% Barbosa
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +143(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Silva)
Flyweight✗
Joseph Morales won by Submission (R2)
Morales 39%61% Idiris
LEAN
→Elo gap: -70(favors Idiris)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Morales)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Morales)