UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Khamzat Chimaev (8-0) taking on Dricus Du Plessis (9-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Chimaev at 1987 versus Plessis at 1860. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Both fighters bring momentum: Chimaev rides a 8-fight win streak into this one, while Plessis has won 9 straight.

The style clash matters here: Chimaev is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Plessis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Chimaev the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Plessis throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Chimaev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Plessis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dricus Du Plessis over Khamzat Chimaev. The model gives Plessis a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Lerone Murphy (8-0-1) taking on Aaron Pico (0-0). Murphy will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Murphy is rated at 1654 — 660 points above Pico's 994. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Murphy rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Murphy throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Murphy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Pico has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lerone Murphy over Aaron Pico. We're leaning Murphy here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Carlos Prates (5-1) taking on Geoff Neal (8-5). Prates is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Prates is rated at 1806 — 560 points above Neal's 1247. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Prates's striker game against Neal's all-rounder approach. Prates brings a versatile approach, while Neal is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Neal throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Neal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Neal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlos Prates over Geoff Neal. The model gives Prates a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Michael Page (2-1) taking on Jared Cannonier (11-8). Page is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Page at 1419, Cannonier at 1426. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cannonier throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Cannonier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Page has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Page over Jared Cannonier. The model gives Page a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Tim Elliott (9-11) taking on Kai Asakura (0-1). Asakura will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Elliott is rated at 1241 — 302 points above Asakura's 940. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elliott throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Elliott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Elliott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Elliott over Kai Asakura. The model gives Elliott a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Baisangur Susurkaev (1-0) taking on Eric Nolan (0-0). Susurkaev will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Susurkaev is rated at 1207 — 318 points above Nolan's 890. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nolan throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Nolan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Nolan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Baisangur Susurkaev over Eric Nolan. The model gives Susurkaev a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Michal Oleksiejczuk (9-7) taking on Gerald Meerschaert (12-12). Meerschaert will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Oleksiejczuk is rated at 1268 — 401 points above Meerschaert's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Oleksiejczuk's striker game against Meerschaert's wrestler approach. Oleksiejczuk brings a versatile approach, while Meerschaert looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oleksiejczuk throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Oleksiejczuk is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Meerschaert has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michal Oleksiejczuk over Gerald Meerschaert. We're leaning Oleksiejczuk here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Loopy Godinez (8-5) taking on Jessica Andrade (17-12).

There's a real Elo separation here: Godinez at 1260 versus Andrade at 1115. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Godinez's wrestler game against Andrade's knockout artist approach. Godinez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Andrade is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Godinez throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Godinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Godinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Loopy Godinez over Jessica Andrade. We're leaning Godinez here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Alexander Hernandez (9-7) taking on Chase Hooper (8-3). Hooper is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Hernandez is rated at 1469 — 294 points above Hooper's 1175. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Hernandez rides a 3-fight win streak into this one, while Hooper has won 5 straight.

Stylistically this is Hernandez's striker game against Hooper's submission artist approach. Hernandez brings a versatile approach, while Hooper is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooper throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hooper is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Hernandez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chase Hooper over Alexander Hernandez. The model is firm on this one: Hooper at 77%.

The Lightweight matchup features Drakkar Klose (9-3) taking on Edson Barboza (18-13). Barboza is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Klose is rated at 1397 — 255 points above Barboza's 1142. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Klose throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Klose is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Barboza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Drakkar Klose over Edson Barboza. We're leaning Klose here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Karine Silva (5-1) taking on Dione Barbosa (2-1).

Silva is rated at 1237 — 212 points above Barbosa's 1025. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Barbosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Karine Silva over Dione Barbosa. We're leaning Silva here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Joseph Morales (2-2) taking on Alibi Idiris (0-1).

Morales is rated at 1149 — 177 points above Idiris's 973. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morales throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Morales is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Idiris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alibi Idiris over Joseph Morales. The model gives Idiris a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.